Arizona State and Stanford will play in the third Pac-12 championship game this weekend from Sun Devil Stadium, giving the Cardinal an opportunity to represent the conference in the Rose Bowl for the second straight year. The Sun Devils will look to win the Pac-12 for the second time in school history and appear in their first Rose Bowl since 1997.
Stanford has been touted as one of the nation’s top teams this season but suffered a major hiccup against Utah, all but ending its national title and conference championship aspirations. A victory against Oregon three weeks later completely turned those doubts around and put the Cardinal at the top of the Pac-12 North. A seemingly fatal loss to USC once again appeared to have dashed Stanford’s Rose Bowl hopes, until Oregon faltered against Arizona, helping David Shaw’s squad play for a trip to Pasadena.
The Sun Devils and second-year head coach Todd Graham were expected to be an improved bunch and challenge defending South Division champions UCLA for a spot in the title game. They did just that and more, running the table against fellow south teams and quietly leading the pack all season, their only in-conference loss coming at the hands of Stanford.
Needless to say, Saturday is a redemption game.
On paper, these teams are fairly even. ASU boasts a better passing game and scores more points while Stanford runs the ball more effectively and possesses a superior defense.
Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks and spend plenty of time in opposing backfields — Stanford with 89 and ASU with 85 tackles for loss.
Red zone efficiency is a common attribute for the teams, as well. Arizona State ranks sixth nationally with a 92.75 percent red zone scorning rate and Stanford isn’t far behind at 88.89 percent.
Stanford wins if…
They get to Taylor Kelly. Arizona State is one of the worst teams in terms of sacks allowed this season and Stanford happens to have national sacks leader Trent Murphy at their disposal. Kelly drops back 35 times per game already, and that total will likely be higher if Marion Grice can’t get going against Stanford’s impenetrable run defense.
Offensively the Cardinal need to protect Kevin Hogan. His offensive line has allowed just 11 sacks this year, but the Sun Devils have a handful of excellent pass rushers in Carl Bradford, Davon Coleman, Chris Young and Pac-12 defensive player of the year Will Sutton.
Arizona State wins if…
The Sun Devils match Stanford defensively. The Sun Devils have shown their ability to put up points, but Stanford’s defense is good enough to keep even the most potent offenses in check. Just ask the Ducks. Sutton and company need to limit Stanford’s scoring and contain Gaffney, forcing Hogan to air it out.
ASU also trumps Stanford in the turnover department. The Sun Devils have a much better turnover margin (13 to 0) than the Cardinal and lost the turnover battle in the teams’ first matchup. Hogan has combined for one touchdown and two interceptions in losses this year, so getting takeaways will be vital for Arizona State on Saturday.
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