Column: A brand Newt strategy

By Sam Novack

The following monikers are the Secret Service code names of the only two Republican presidential candidates that I would like to see in the remainder of the Republican primary. Mitt Romney, “Javelin,” is the clear frontrunner with 563 delegates. Rick Santorum, “Petrus,” is trailing Romney by three hundred delegates. To secure the nomination as Republican presidential candidate, either man needs to gain a total of 1,144 delegates.

The delegates in the remaining states, all told, amount to roughly 1,200. These remaining delegates are enough, theoretically, for a random candidate who won them all to clinch the nomination. In truth, though, this would be a rather paltry number if divided up among the four remaining GOP candidates: Romney, Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. From where things stand now, there are a number of paths forward for the primary to take. Each path seems to point toward a Romney nomination — most political junkies are of the opinion that Romney is almost certainly the one to appear on the ballot come November of this year.

I, on the other hand, am not ready for Santorum to call it a day. He can still win, even at this late stage in the game, but it will take some doing. The main event that needs to take place in order to strengthen Santorum’s chances is Newt Gingrich’s departure from the race. This is the most widely touted means for Santorum’s success, and rightly so. Currently, Romney is winning among individuals who have a college degree or greater, make more than $100,000, rank beating President Obama as their number one priority and identify themselves as moderate to liberal. Santorum is winning among those who regularly attend religious services, want a “true conservative,” identify themselves as evangelicals or born-again Christians and who list abortion as their number one issue. A few other demographics, such as married women and young voters, are still contested.

Alright, so there is the catalogue. But what does it mean? Romney has his supporters fairly locked in and it is unlikely they will shift significantly toward Santorum. What is significant about this list is that Gingrich’s continued participation will split the vote of Santorum’s religious and true-conservative supporters.

There are a variety of examples which illustrate how much this internal divide is hurting Santorum’s chances. In Alabama, Santorum won, securing 19 delegates to Romney’s 11. Gingrich got 12 delegates from Alabama.

The same story played out in Mississippi, Gingrich taking another 12 delegates to Santorum’s 13. It is in these southern states where Santorum needed to close the gap on Romney, but Gingrich’s presence has split the vote among those who, if presented only with Romney and Santorum, would more strongly align with Santorum. If Gingrich had gotten out when Santorum became the clear Romney competitor, Santorum would have a significant number of additional delegates.

I admit that it may not be entirely justified to call for Gingrich’s departure from the race. Although Santorum’s odds are only a little better than Gingrich’s were a few weeks ago, I want Santorum to fight every step of the way. Each of these men has invested significant time and money into this race, and admitting defeat is probably not an easy ordeal. All the same, if Gingrich wants, as I do, a more right-leaning candidate to get the nod, he would do well to bow out, and soon.

If he does not, the outcome is fairly clear — a Romney victory with no apparent competitor as he picks up more delegates. I do not want to see this happen. Conservatives should not have to get behind Romney sheerly because other candidates have canceled each other out. A clear one-on-one primary, from here on out, between Javelin and Petrus, would give the GOP an opportunity to decide where its priorities lie. Such a race, even marred as it has been by Gingrich’s continued presence, would be more clearly indicative of political sentiment on the right, which needs to be fully fleshed out in time for the general election.

As an interesting aside, it could be that when it comes time for the national convention in August no one candidate will have secured the 1,144 delegates required. This could lead Romney to add Santorum as his vice president to compromise with the far-right and so gain the nomination. Even if Romney secures the required delegates, he may add Santorum just to round out his ticket.

Still, Santorum supporters such as myself will not be rooting for a possible vice presidential nod as long as there is hope left for victory. If Gingrich will leave the race, Santorum will be able to claim a much broader portion of the votes from right-wing conservatives. If this primary has taught us anything, it is that we cannot easily predict the outcomes. More than one massive surge in momentum has occurred thus far, and there is still a ways to go before the final tallying of delegates.

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