It seemed like a plot right out of a Hollywood espionage film.
A foreign country, one suspected for being slightly over the edge, slips up and has one of their would-be assassins caught – all on American soil.
Like many movies, it appears all is not as it seems with the recent stopping of Iran’s assassination attempt. While an action as brazen and crazy as the supposed Iranian assassination plot of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Adel Al-Jubeir, may sound plausible to many, there are those who claim it simply doesn’t make sense, or even fit the Iranian style.
Yes, as crazy as Iran and its president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have been perceived in the past, this is too much.
However, when people delve into some of the possible reasons, there appears to be a much better planned element to the whole matter.
All is not united and joyous in the country of Iran, unsurprisingly. For some time now, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been severed into factions – one of which was apparently behind the planning of the assassination attempt.
Their reasons? Well, if you’re a conspiracy buff, then it’s probably going to sound familiar.
The goal of the assassination attempt on Ambassador Al-Jubeir was apparently not so much his death, but the reactions it would cause in the international community. In this regard, the plan seems to have been pretty successful, as we’ve had politicians from both sides of the aisle clamoring for some retaliation.
This threat of retribution from the West is what some say the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps wanted all along.
According to former Iranian consul Mohammad Reza Heydari, “There is a portion of the Revolutionary Guards who want to create an external crisis so they can consolidate their power and push to unite different groups inside Iran.”
When I heard this, I recalled the claims many people had following the attacks on Sept. 11. According to some conspiracy believers, the events of that fateful day were a false-flag operation meant to give the government an excuse for more power, both domestically and abroad.
While I think people believing the Bush administration was behind the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history may have a few loose screws, it’s hard to not see why such a theory garnered some support.
In the months following 9/11, we saw certain actions performed by the government that would never have been allowed a year earlier. The USA PATRIOT Act, the invasion of Afghanistan and later Iraq were all done under the claim of stopping possible terrorist attacks.
It’s funny to see how similar Iran and America can be at times, though neither may admit it.
When one looks back on the previous dealings of the Revolutionary Guards, it seems much more apparent the assassination plot was probably not the goal. The Quds Force – a branch of the Revolutionary Guard which is being accused of the plot – has long had its hands in plots against foreign countries, yet they are usually carried out through proxies, ones trusted to complete the jobs.
Transitioning from using groups like Hezbollah to carry out their plans to using a 56-year-old Iranian-American seems far too prone for failure. Iran has too much to lose from such an attack, and not nearly enough to gain to warrant such a risk.
As with many things involving Iran, there seems to be more than meets the eye. Should this really allow a consolidation of different groups in Iran, it would be interesting to see what it means for the country and their international relationships.
All we can do now is try to uncover more about the plot, while avoiding any hasty jumps to action. The last thing we need is to escalate this in fear and get ourselves stuck in another war.