The race for the Republican Party presidential nomination is splintered among a field of candidates fighting each other for attention and fundraiser dollars.
Over the weekend, each candidate reported the amounts they raised and spent on campaigns over the past three months, per Federal Election Commission requirements.
Fundraising can be “a measure of viability for candidates,” said U. Minnesota political science professor Andrew Karch.
Front-runner and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney raised about $14 million in the third quarter, second best in the field. Eric Ostermeier, a research associate at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, said Romney has been outperforming his fellow Republicans in the presidential debates.
According to Ostermeier’s analysis, Romney’s opponents have “verbally attacked” him 29 times during debates — second only to Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Ostermeier said Romney has handled the negative attention from his peers well.
“Romney is smart enough, savvy enough and has enough debate experience that he is able to respond, and his poll numbers don’t suffer,” he said.
But Karch said Romney’s consistent polling results, while other candidates like Perry and Herman Cain have stolen the spotlight, suggest that there is “a group that’s looking for an alternative.”
“It indicates there is a segment of the Republican electorate who thinks [Romney] is not a good candidate,” he said.
Karch said Romney must convince the more conservative base of the Republican Party that he’s the right candidate.
Although Perry led the Republican pack in fundraising with $17 million, he has suffered in recent debates, said David Schultz, policy expert and professor at Hamline University.
“I think Perry peaked several weeks ago,” Schultz said. “He’s made too many mistakes in the debates and he’s already wounded.”
Ostermeier, Schultz and Karch described Cain as the current “flavor of the month.” A recent Gallup poll shows 18 percent of Republicans support Cain — he had 5 percent in the same poll two weeks earlier.
Schultz said Cain’s newfound notoriety will subject his proposed “9-9-9” tax plan and his background to intense public and media scrutiny. Cain was CEO of Godfather’s Pizza from 1986 to 1996, and has never held political office.
“Unlike [Rep. Michele] Bachmann, who wasn’t able to sustain her publicity, Cain is a better public speaker and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain it,” Schultz said.
According to reports, Bachmann raised $4.1 million since July 1, putting her in the middle of the fundraising race.
U. Minnesota political science professor Kathryn Pearson said although Bachmann has lost steam since she won the Iowa straw poll in August, she has reasons to stick around. Pearson guessed that Bachmann will stay in the race at least until the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus in early 2012.
Schultz agreed, but said he doesn’t see a future beyond Iowa for the Minnesotan representative.
As for the rest of the candidates, Schultz said he doesn’t expect the field to thin any time soon.
“After the first primary or two, we’ll see many drop out,” Ostermeier said.
Obama lengths ahead in the fundraising race
While the current challenge for Republican candidates is the battle within their own party, the eventual faceoff will be against President Barack Obama, who raised $70 million in the third quarter as the sole Democratic candidate.
But when the Republican party’s candidate emerges, Karch said Obama “will face a headwind.”
While Karch and the other experts noted Obama’s fundraising success will be helpful, his biggest problem on the campaign trail will be the troubled economy.
“He has to articulate a compelling argument of why he should be re-elected,” Schultz said, “especially with the economy as bad as it is.”