The potential NFL lockout has been covered endlessly, but the possibility of an NBA lockout also looms, and it could destabilize the tremendous growth the league has seen over the last few months.
The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement will expire shortly after the 2010-11 season comes to a close, and there has yet to be any progress toward making a new one. Union President Billy Hunter and League Commissioner David Stern last met during the All-Star break, and rather than come closer to an agreement, both sides moved further apart.
The labor history of the NBA differs drastically from that of the NFL. For instance, the last time the NBA entered a lockout was in 1998, which caused the league to miss the first half of the 1998-99 regular season. Meanwhile, the NFL has been more stable, with its last lockout coming in 1987.
More importantly, the ramifications of an NBA lockout are different. An NFL lockout would equal a one-year loss of billions of dollars for the NFL, but the league’s long-term future seems to be secure. Football is the most profitable sport in America, with its stadium attendance and television contracts dwarfing that of other professional leagues. The 2011 Super Bowl was the most-watched sporting event in American television history, with 111 million viewers. It supplanted the 2010 Super Bowl, which had 106.5 million viewers.
The NBA’s long-term future is far from stable. One ongoing problem has been dwindling ticket sales. During the 2008-09 season the league sold over 91 percent of its tickets; that percentage has dwindled to just over 88 percent this season. The New Jersey Nets have built a reputation of playing in a half empty arena. In the past couple seasons, television ratings were also down, with the biggest example being the horrendous 2007 NBA Finals between San Antonio and Cleveland.
Luckily for the NBA, this season’s television ratings have been up, thanks to the controversial acquisitions of the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks, the improbable playoff pushes of the Memphis Grizzlies and the Atlanta Hawks, and the consistently superb play of Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant. The NBA has a solid base of popularity that it needs to build upon. Losing a season would destroy its momentum.
Much like the NHL after its lockout cancelled the 2004-05 season, the NBA’s attendance and television ratings would likely plummet when play resumes. While a lockout in any professional sport would result in the loss of millions of dollars, the NBA faces the prospect of stunting its budding economic growth for a long period of time.