Column: Making sense of the college football polls with hard numbers

By Trent Lootens

Column: Making sense of the college football polls with hard numbers

Boise State may be No. 3 in all three major polls again, but lets take a closer look at how the Broncos are clearly discriminated against. Strength of schedule (SOS) rankings, according to the consensus computer rankings this week, in bold. In English: the lower the number, the better the team is.

See how the overall rankings are broken down by the computers at http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compsum.htm

Facts:

3.59 No. 3 BSU 5-0 (1-0 WAC) slipped from 101 to 120 points behind 7.69 No. 1 Ohio State 6-0 (2-0 Big 10) and from 24 to 53 points behind 5.98 No. 2 Oregon 6-0 (3-0 Pac-10) in this weeks USA Today Coaches’ Poll. BSU beat 66.84 Toledo 57-14 3-3 (2-0 MAC) last week.

• Ohio St. beat 74.68 Indiana 3-2 (0-2 Big 10) 38-10 — IU’s wins are against Towson, Western Kentucky and Akron. Oregon defeated 1-5 (0-3 Pac-10) 96.78 Washington State 43-23 — WSU’s only win vs. Montana State 23-22 in Pullman Wash.

• BSU ranks No. 5 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense nationally. No other team in the country ranks inside the top five of both these categories. According to the computers, BSU has played the toughest SOS out of any top five team and has performed the best on both sides of the ball, as the numbers communicate.

25.13 Virginia Tech 4-2 (2-0 ACC) received 24 votes in the USA Today Poll behind 24.91 North Carolina State 5-1 (2-1 ACC) that received 41 votes. VT defeated NCST 41-30 two weeks ago on the road in Raleigh, N.C.

21.21 Oregon State 3-2 (2-0 Pac-10) has only lost to BSU and 4.32 No. 5 TCU 6-0 (2-0 MWC) by a combined 22 points — both losses came on the road. Oregon St. beat 15.0 No. 20 Arizona 4-1 (1-1 Pac-10) last week on the road in Tucson, Ariz. 29-27.

Questions in need of answering:

• How does BSU get lose ground in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll when it beats a better team than Ohio St. and Oregon did last week?

• If the polls truly reflect how good a team is due to its overall body of work, then why isn’t BSU ranked above Ohio St. and Oregon when its the only team to have both its offense and defense ranked in the top five nationally?

• According to the computer averages, BSU has played a tougher SOS schedule than both Ohio St. and Oregon. Why isn’t BSU acknowledged for having the best overall team as the national offensive and defensive statistics imply?

• How is NCST receiving more votes than VT when VT was clearly the better team?

• How is Arizona ranked ahead of Oregon St. when Oregon St. just beat Arizona on the road?

• I thought the voters favored head-to-head match-ups more than anything?

Answers:

There is only one answer. This might not come as a surprise to anyone, but the polls are a complete joke, and it’s not hard to see. Establishment teams, for some reason, are rewarded for defeating inferior opponents. The computer system, that is one-third of the BCS formula, indicates BSU has played a superior schedule when compared to Ohio St. and Oregon.

Still, BSU is thrown to the back-burner. The coaches, or should I say the sports information directors who actually fill out the ballots, are obviously afraid of BSU crashing their party. Not only are they punishing BSU, they’re downgrading their own kind in Oregon St. and VT to ensure BSU doesn’t move up. Cannibalizing the weak so the strong can survive in a sense.

If the voters move Oregon St. or VT up, then BSU gets more credibility. This way they can say, “Look, BSU hasn’t beaten any teams in the Top 25. It doesn’t deserve to play for the BCS National Championship.”

Bravo, voters, bravo. Your ways of skewing the polls may oblivious to many, but for those who dig deep, we will use your own system against you to debunk your faults. We may live in Boise, Idaho, but we can do math and read graphs with the best of them

Read more here: http://arbiteronline.com/2010/10/13/making-sense-of-the-polls-with-hard-numbers-a-few-points-to-ponder/
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