I doubt that it’s news to anyone that we are in pretty dismal economic times here in the U.S. Everyone is constantly looking at economic data to argue for or against the possibility of a double dip recession. Statistics are thrown around constantly.

The most looked at statistic by everyday Americans is the U.S. unemployment level, currently at 9.5 percent. It’s the statistic that they quote on the evening news and the quote that all of your co-workers gripe about at the water cooler.

However, that unemployment level statistic is a pretty deceptive figure. I use the word “deceptive” not only because it is published by a branch of government —the Department of Labor—but also because it truly is a misleading figure.  So, what is so deceiving about the unemployment level that we all take for granted?

The answer: Government likes to include and not include certain populous’ into their statistics so that the “best” statistic is ultimately achieved.

Even with the rough economy, Washington bureaucrats have managed to hold the proverbial sheet over ordinary Americans’ eyes when it comes to the true health of our economy. Washingtonians love to point to the decreasing monthly unemployment level whenever the statistic moves in favor of a rebounding economy. What those spin masters don’t tell us, is that the unemployment level that most Americans take as fact actually isn’t more than a really bad solution to a convoluted mathematical equation.

You see, there are actually two employment statistics us “ordinary Americans” should follow. The second being the unemployment claims statistic. The unemployment claims number is published weekly rather than monthly which gives investors a more up-to-date and detailed report of what truly is happening in the labor markets.

Throughout this recession, we have had instances where the unemployment level decreases while the preceding unemployment claims were increasing.  Simpler, more people were now unemployed based on a weekly unemployment claims, but according to the monthly unemployment level the number of people unemployed was less.

So what gives?

Easy, unemployed people stopped looking for a job.

Once a person is deemed “no longer looking” the government does not include that person into the unemployment level. That person may very well still need a job but after many months of no success has decided to just stop looking. Those truly unemployed people are no longer a “negative” statistic according to the spin artists in Washington. So we now have a pretty large populous in America that is neither “employed” nor “unemployed” in Washington’s eyes.

Currently, most experts predict that the true unemployment level, that includes “non lookers”, is around 16.5 percent compared to the 9.5 percent that Washington claims. With a recovering U.S. economy, we should expect those “non-lookers” to start looking for jobs, which would result in them being included into the unemployment level once again. As a result, we should see a moderate to steep rise in the published unemployment level with any sign of a recovering U.S. labor market.

If the economy decides to strengthen, expect the unemployment level to find a nice medium between the true 16.5 percent and distorted 9.5 percent. Washington will be pushing the best slanted statistic that is out there. It’s your job to be smarter than they think that you are.