The BP oil spill could cause Florida to lose 195,000 jobs and $10.9 billion, according to Sean Snaith, the director of the Institute of Economic Competitiveness at U. Central Florida.
Snaith’s report is based on the scenario of the oil being contained around the Gulf with only Florida’s 23 counties along the coast being affected. Factors such as weather and ocean currents can cause the oil to spread to other counties and cause those numbers to increase.
Snaith said he can’t predict which counties will be hit the hardest. There are different modules and scenarios that show more of an impact to certain counties. He also cannot predict exactly when these losses might happen.
“It is possible that these losses can start to slowly occur after multiple years,” Snaith said.
“We won’t know until, ultimately, the oil finds its way on shore or doesn’t.”
According to Snaith, the concentration of job loss would be in the tourism and hospitality fields, but his report is a prediction for jobs across all sectors of the economy. He said the oil spill will produce a ripple effect throughout Florida’s economy.
With Snaith’s predictions, Florida will see an increase in its unemployment rate which now stands at 12 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“It is already a difficult job market because of the economy,” Snaith said. “This is not what we needed. The timing couldn’t be worse.”
If these job losses expand beyond the tourism and hospitality fields, Snaith said that it may hinder UCF students who will be entering the workforce and looking for jobs.
“If [the] predictions are true, it could definitely affect graduates of all colleges in Florida,” said Lynn Hansen, the executive director of Career Services.
Hansen said she hasn’t read the report yet, but any time the unemployment rate sees an increase, it affects college graduates. She also said the oil spill could possibly create jobs that deal with helping to contain and clean up the oil spill or prevent something like this from happening again for some graduates.
Jessica Brannock, a senior event management major, said she doesn’t have any worries about entering the workforce.
“I think a lot of the places that are on the water and relying on tourism might be affected a little bit, but I don’t think it will affect everyone,” Brannock said.
BP has offered opportunities for people to volunteer, and the company has set up a hotline for people who might have ideas on how to help with the cleanup. BP is also looking for information on sightings of oil washing ashore and impacting wildlife.
Rebecca Reaves, a senior event management major, said she’s not too concerned about the predictions.
“I really don’t think it will have a major effect,” Reaves said. “The hospitality industry has such a wide range; it may only affect certain areas.”
Reaves works for a timeshare company and says they have resorts near the Panama region. She says that even though it’s near the oil spill, they haven’t seen a major effect yet. Reaves thinks as time progresses there may be some displacement of jobs, but she doesn’t think there will be any major losses.
President Barack Obama addressed the businesses around the Gulf that might suffer because of the spill in his briefing Monday.
“It’s going to take time for things to return to normal,” Obama said. “There is going to be a harmful effect on many local businesses, and it’s going to be painful for a lot of folks.”