The 2015-16 NCAA men’s college basketball season has been out of character in the current era of players leaving for the NBA after their freshman seasons (commonly referred to as “one-and-dones”). This season, an unusually high number of seniors have emerged as top players in the nation.
Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon, Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, North Carolina’s Brice Johnson, Iowa State’s Georges Niang and Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine account for half of the 10 players named as semifinalists for the Naismith Award, given annually to the best player in the NCAA.
The same trend is true of most highly-ranked teams. With the exception of No. 1 Kansas, each team ranked in the top five of the AP Poll has at least two seniors averaging 20 minutes or more per game this season:
1. Kansas – Perry Ellis
2. Michigan State – Matt Costello, Bryn Forbes, Valentine
3. Villanova – Ryan Arcidiacono, Daniel Ochefu
4. Virginia – Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill
5. Xavier – Remy Abell, James Farr
The rise of seniors in college basketball this season is rare in an era where many players have no intention of staying in college any longer than they’re required to. Since 2006, when the NBA no longer allowed players to leap straight from high school to the league, 68 players have left college after their freshman seasons to turn pro, according to the Washington Post. But, results are mixed for one-and-done players in the NBA, and this season’s large class of seniors could foreshadow years to come.
Several seniors have played key roles for the Ducks this season. Dwayne Benjamin, Chris Boucher and Elgin Cook are all averaging at least 20 minutes per game. Fellow senior Dylan Ennis, who transferred from Villanova in the offseason, likely would’ve joined them had he not suffered a season-ending left foot injury in January.
However, few seniors appear to be top prospects in the NBA Draft. LSU freshman Ben Simmons remains the likely number one pick and Duke freshman Brandon Ingram could go No. 2.
But recent rule changes could cause a decline in the one-and-done trend. The NCAA Division I committee agreed in January to extend the deadline from early April to late May for players to remove their names from the NBA Draft. In addition, players will be allowed to participate in the NBA Draft Combine and tryout with one NBA team per year without losing NCAA eligibility.
These rule changes, effective for the upcoming NBA Draft, will allow players more flexibility in returning to school. If, for instance, a player has a bad showing during the pre-draft process, he can go back to college for another season and try again the next year.
Moving forward, however, the likelihood of seniors headlining college basketball programs at this season’s rate is unlikely.
But at the very least, the 2015-16 season has been unpredictable with so many experienced players, and should make for an interesting NCAA tournament.
Follow Will Denner on Twitter @Will_Denner