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Pac-12 football predictions for this week

 

 

**Editor’s Note: Most Pac-12 teams are involved in their second conference game of the year this week. Featured match-ups include Arizona vs. Stanford and a rematch of last year’s 60-59 Cal win over Washington State. Here’s a look at what The Emerald’s Oregon football reporters are predicting for each Pac-12 game.

PAC12

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Report: Oregon wide receiver Darren Carrington cited for alcohol violation

 

Oregon wide receiver Darren Carrington was cited by Eugene police for an open container violation the morning of Sept. 26,  according to The Oregonian. 

The Oregonian reports that the citation requires a Eugene Municipal Court appearance on Oct. 16.

Carrington, who became a standout wide receiver for the Ducks last year, was already serving a five-game suspension this season after failing a drug test before the College Football Playoff national championship game against Ohio State – a game he was forced to miss as well.

Oregon’s matchup with Colorado Saturday was expected to be the final game Carrington would miss this season.

Eugene police spokeswoman Melinda McLaughlin told The Oregonian that police officers on “party patrol” found the redshirt sophomore close to Eugene’s East 14th Avenue and Patterson Street at 2:34 a.m., holding what looked like an alcoholic beverage. The officers later confirmed it was and issued him a citation.

A team spokesperson did not reveal whether the citation would effect Carrington’s expected return, according to the report.

If it does, it will only hurt the Ducks’ depth at wideout even more. CSN Northwest reported Wednesday that senior wide receiver Byron Marshall was “most likely” out for the remainder of the season, after suffering an apparent leg injury in Oregon’s 62-20 loss to Utah last week.

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Stack up: Oregon exposes flaws last week, looks to respond against Colorado

Multiple Oregon players and coaches used the term “snowball” to describe Utah’s 62-20 thrashing of the Ducks on Saturday. And that’s a simple way to assess it. By the end of regulation, Oregon had suffered one of the worst losses in Autzen Stadium history and exposed more flaws than the team has strengths.

Vernon Adams Jr. left the game in the second quarter, Jeff Lockie threw two interceptions and Utah’s offense rolled right over the Ducks’ hapless defense. The loss left Oregon unranked for the first time since 2009, and also makes this week’s matchup against Colorado that much more interesting.

The quarterback position has a big question mark next to it. The Ducks’ secondary – a group that has been outperformed all year – has not shown any signs of improvement. Even more, Byron Marshall left Saturday’s contest with a leg injury and is mostly likely done for the season.

Colorado is riding a three-game win streak coming into this Saturday and poses a threat at wide receiver. Buffaloes’ wide receiver Nelson Spruce caught 106 passes for 1,198 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014 and has 25 receptions for 276 yards thus far this season.

Here’s how Oregon and Colorado stack up:

Oregon offense vs. Colorado defense 

The glaring question for Oregon’s offense is who will start at quarterback. Adams started Saturday, but exited in the second quarter. While he contends that his broken index finger is not an excuse for his performance, offensive coordinator Scott Frost told reporters Monday that Adams couldn’t put “any steam on the ball” during the game. If that continues to be the case, Lockie could start against Colorado. Judging by his latest performance though, in which the junior completed 50 percent of his passes with two interceptions, the quarterback position appears to be in flux.

On the other hand, Colorado’s defense is coming off its first defensive shutout since 2009. The unit is allowing 16.5 points and 341.2 yards per game. However, this will be Colorado’s first true test of the season, especially when considering the team did not win a single Pac-12 game last year.

Colorado offense vs. Oregon defense

Colorado’s offense is averaging 35.7 points and 272 rushing yards per game this season. Its rushing average is ranked 13th in the nation and uses a trio of capable running backs. Christian Powell, Phillip Lindsay and Michael Adkins II have all ran for over 210 yards on the season and have all scored three touchdowns a piece. Those three names should be paid close attention to, as Oregon’s rushing defense was gauged for 273 yards last week.

But Colorado may try to attack the Ducks through the air given Oregon’s continued struggles at defensive back. As mentioned before, Spruce is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the Pac-12 and the Buffaloes have an experienced quarterback behind center in Sefo Liufau. While Liufau hasn’t put up any impressive statistics this season, it’s a sure bet that head coach Mike MacIntyre is aware of the Ducks’ weakness in the secondary.

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AP Poll: Oregon drops out of Top 25 for first time since 2009

After its 62-20 loss to Utah Saturday, Oregon dropped out of the AP Top 25 Poll for the first times since September 2009. In addition, the Ducks’ absence from the poll Sunday marks the end of the second longest active streak ranked in the Top 25.

Oregon had been ranked 98 consecutive weeks, behind Alabama, who has now been ranked in the Top 25 120 straight weeks.

Oregon’s lack of a ranking Sunday culminates what has been a consistent downhill plunge in the polls this season. The team was ranked No. 7 in the preseason polls, but by Saturday’s game versus Utah, was ranked No. 13.

Elsewhere in the Pac-12, UCLA moved to No. 7 after its win over Arizona Saturday night. Utah sneaked into the top-10 at No. 10. USC is ranked 17th and Stanford is ranked 18th. Cal moved into the top 25 for the first time this season and is ranked No. 24.

Here’s how the poll looks:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan State
  3. Ole Miss
  4. TCU
  5. Baylor
  6. Notre Dame
  7. UCLA
  8. Georgia
  9. LSU
  10. Utah
  11. Florida State
  12. Clemson
  13. Alabam
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Oklahoma
  16. Northwestern
  17. USC
  18. Stanford
  19. Wisconsin
  20. Oklahoma State
  21. Mississippi State
  22. Michigan
  23. West Virginia
  24. Cal
  25. Florida

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Pac-12 football predictions for this week

**Editor’s note: Conference play is in full swing in the Pac-12 this week. Featured match-ups include No. 13 Oregon facing No. 18 Utah and No. 9 UCLA squaring off against No. 16 Arizona. Here’s a look at what The Emerald’s Oregon football reporters are predicting for each Pac-12 game.**

Pac-12 Staff Picks 9/24

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How Oregon and Utah Stack up: Utes pose undeniable threat this week

If you need a refresher on the potential threat that No. 18 Utah poses this week when it faces No. 13 Oregon, look no further than the teams’ last matchup in November 2014. While the final score doesn’t portray a close game, the Utes overpowered Oregon in the game’s initial stages. So much so that Utah was about to take a 14-0 lead in the second quarter.

However, as Utah wide receiver Kaelin Clay ran toward the end zone for what was to be a 79-yard touchdown pass-and-catch, the momentum quickly shifted. Clay, as he began his celebration, dropped the ball at the one-yard line. After a brief scramble for the ball, Oregon linebacker Joe Walker scooped it up and ran 99 yards in the other direction. The play resulted in a 7-7 tie and sparked a 51-27 win for the Ducks.

But how the first phases of the game went last year shows what Utah is capable of. The Utes have a dark horse Heisman candidate in running back Devontae Booker, and their defense has only allowed 18.3 points per game this season.

The clash between Oregon’s ground game and Utah’s front seven on defense should be entertaining as well. The Utes have only allowed 105.7 rushing yards per game this season, and may be the most physical Pac-12 team Oregon faces.

Here’s how they stack up:

Oregon offense vs. Utah defense

Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost told reporters Monday that Vernon Adams Jr.’s broken index finger has “no risk anymore of furthering the injury.” That’s good news, as Adams showed plenty of potential in his first two starts in a Ducks uniform. The graduate transfer has averaged 277.5 passing yards per game while also displaying an ability to run, accounting for 100 rushing yards in two games. But turnovers became a problem for Adams when Oregon faced Michigan State. In the first three games of this season Utah has shown a knack for capitalizing on those type of mistakes. The Utes have forced eight turnovers.

In addition, the Ducks’ rushing attack was back in form against Georgia State last Saturday. In the first half alone Royce Freeman ran for 101 yards and one touchdown. But the Utes’ physicality in the trenches is something to take note of. The unit has been dominant in games against non-conference opponents.

Oregon has rushed the ball with ease against Georgia State and Eastern Washington. But its ground attack did not have as much success against Michigan State. If that problem persists against a rugged Utah team, it could be an interesting game.

Oregon defense vs. Utah offense 

Utah’s Booker is averaging 115 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. But the Utes’ aerial attack is a different story. Travis Wilson started at quarterback to begin the season, but sat out last week with a sprained left shoulder. His replacement was Kendal Thompson, and the two have combined to average 167 passing yards per game this season. It makes for an intriguing matchup, considering that the Ducks’ secondary has been their weakest point of the defense.

Opposing offenses have averaged 316 yards through the air this season against the Ducks. While the unit felt like it was progressing after an impressive fight against No. 2 Michigan State two weeks ago, concerns continued to mount last week against Georgia State. However, the Ducks, like Utah, have created eight turnovers this season.

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Jeff Lockie runs show ‘pretty well’ in Oregon’s 61-28 win over Georgia State

Jeff Lockie stood on the sidelines when Oregon scored its first points Saturday. A dropped pass from a Georgia State wide receiver fell right into the hands of Tyree Robinson during the game’s first drive, and the defensive back returned it 41 yards for a score.

Lockie’s role on that play was similar to many of the Ducks’ scores during his collegiate career, as the redshirt junior has been a backup quarterback for three consecutive seasons.

But, a few minutes later, once the Oregon offense took the field, that all changed. With Vernon Adams Jr. out with a broken index finger on his throwing hand, Lockie made his first start of his collegiate career Saturday. The seasoned backup who was behind Mariota for two years – and  behind Adams on the depth chart since the Ducks’ official roster was released in August– played the majority of Oregon’s offensive snaps in its 61-28 win over Georgia State.

“It felt good to get consistently hit for the first time since I was 17-18 years old,” Lockie said. “That was good – to get hit and get back up. It’s a little different taking hits for a whole game.” 

Lockie must’ve felt good about his performance too. The Danville, California native went 23-of-31 for 228 yards passing and two touchdowns Saturday, guiding the Ducks to 40 points on offense. Lockie was taken out of the game with just over 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, with a comfortable 54-28 lead in hand.

Lockie also led the team on scoring drives in six of its seven drives during the first half. While the game did come with its share of missed opportunities from the quarterback – Oregon’s offense stalled four times inside Georgia State’s 25 and settled for field goals each time – head coach Mark Helfrich thought Lockie “ran the show pretty well.”

Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost agreed with that summation.

“It was an unusual game,” Frost said.  “They blitzed us way over half the snaps so it kind of got us out of our drop back pass game and he did a great job of handling that.”

Oregon’s offense totaled 533 yards Saturday, 305 of which came on the ground. But, it wasn’t smooth sailing by any means,f especially on the defensive end.

Georgia State racked together plenty of big plays and long drives to provoke collective silences at Autzen Stadium. The first came on a five-play, 75-yard drive in the first quarter, capped off by a one yard rushing touchdown from quarterback Nick Arbuckle. The drive took just two minutes, and made the score 13-7 Oregon.

The Ducks would score the final 20 points of the half, but Georgia State continued to keep Oregon on its heels. Freshman wide receiver Kirk Merrit fumbled the opening kickoff in the second half and the Panthers responded with a two-play, 32-yard touchdown drive.

Georgia State scored on its next two drives in the third quarter, the most damaging coming on a 75-yard touchdown pass from Arbuckle to Robert Davis.

Oregon defensive coordinator Don Pellum said there was a “lull” from his unit in the third quarter. Georgia State would not score again after that, though, and finished with 434 yards of offense.

Pellum did express that certain areas got better, however.

“I saw some improvements,” Pellum said.  “I saw some more opportunistic plays, so it got better.”

The opportunistic plays he was likely referring to were the turnovers. Oregon forced four of them, and two were returned for touchdowns. The second came after linebacker Tyson Coleman stripped the ball from Arbuckle and Joe Walker scooped it up and ran 52 yards for a score.

“The offense has been scoring a lot and keeping us in the game,” Robinson, who scored the first defensive touchdown, said. “But we have to do our part and help them score points and I think we did that today.”

The win improves Oregon to 2-1. The group will now prepare for Pac-12 play and its first test: A physical Utah team that will come to Autzen Stadium next week undefeated.

As for who is the starting quarterback, Helfrich wouldn’t budge when asked about Adams’s status after the game.

But, where Lockie is next Saturday – whether it is on the sidelines with a headset in his ear or on the field leading the offense – won’t matter to him.

“I’m just going out there and trying to win,” Lockie said. “I don’t think anyone truly cares who’s out there as long as we got the win.”

Notes:

– Royce Freeman carried the ball 10 times for 101 yards and one touchdown in just one half.

– Doug Brenner started at right guard Saturday, replacing Cameron Hunt, who did not dress.

– Dwayne Stanford finished with three receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown.

– Third-string quarterback and placeholder Taylor Alie played the final 10 minutes of the game behind center. The highlight of his day came when the Eugene native ran 90 yards for the game’s final touchdown.

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Rapid Reaction: Oregon defeats Georgia State 61-28 to improve to 2-1 on the year

Barely a minute passed, and Oregon already found the end zone. Thanks to an interception and 41-yard return from defensive back Tyree Robinson on Georgia State’s first drive, the Ducks took an early seven-point advantage.

There would be more of that throughout the game, as the Ducks beat Georgia State in their final non-conference matchup of the season, 61-28.

Jeff Lockie, making the first start of his collegiate career, went 23-for-31 for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Royce Freeman rushed for 101 yards and a score while sitting out the second half and freshman Taj Griffin had 14 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown.

Georgia State did not lay down, though. The Panthers totaled 431 yards on the day, cutting the deficit to 19 (47-28) before the Ducks scored the final 14 points of the game.

The highlight of the game came when walk-on quarterback Taylor Alie ran 87 yards untouched for the score midway through the fourth quarter. Alie, a redshirt sophomore from Sheldon high school in Eugene, faked the handoff before scampering up the middle, veering right and then diving into the end zone for the score.

The rushing touchdown was the fourth longest in Oregon history, one yard longer than former Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota’s longest run.

Key Plays:

– Oregon defensive back Tyree Robinson intercepts Georgia State’s first pass of the game and takes it back 41 yards for the first score of the game. 

– On his first drive, Jeff Lockie leads Oregon on a 13-play, 58-drive, capped off by a 26-yard field goal from Aidan Schneider. 10-0 Oregon. 

– Nick Arbuckle sneaks forward one yard for a Georgia State touchdown, capping a five-play, 75-yard drive. Arbuckles touchdown makes the score 13-7. 

– Oregon’s offense finally finds the end zone, after Royce Freeman bounces a run outside and races 22 yards for a touchdown, making the score 20-7. 

– Jeff Lockie connects with Dwayne Stanford on and screen pass and Stanford does the rest, taking it 35 yards for a score. 27-7 Oregon. 

– Taj Griffin rushes for three yards to score his first touchdown in a Ducks uniform, giving Oregon a 40-14 lead.

– Nick Arbuckle connects with Robert Davis for a 75-yard touchdown pass. Oregon leads 40-21.

– Joe Walker returns a Georgia State fumble 52 yards for a touchdown to make the score 54-28 and give the Ducks some breathing room in the fourth quarter.

– Alie scores on an 87-yard touchdown run to make the score 61-28.

Stats:

Oregon passing

Jeff Lockie: 23-for-31 for 238 yards and two touchdowns

Georgia State passing

Nick Arbuckle: 25-for-35 for 318 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions

Oregon rushing

Royce Freeman: 10 carries for 101 yards and one touchdown.

Taj Griffin: 14 carries for 56 yards and one touchdown

Georgia State rushing

Demarcus Kirk: Six carries for 42 yards.

Emiere Scaife: Three carries for 36 yards.

Oregon receiving

Dwayne Stanford: Three receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown.

Charles Nelson: Two receptions for 48 yards.

Devon Allen: Three receptions for 28 yards.

Georgia State receiving

Penny Hart: Nine receptions for 129 yards.

Robert Davis: Three receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown

Turnovers

Tyree Robinson intercepted Georgia State quarterback Nick Arbuckle twice in the first half, including a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown on the opening drive.

Oregon defensive back Juwaan Williams forced a fumble on a catch from Georgia State receiver Nyiakki Height. Oregon corner Arron Springs was there to recover.

Joe Walker picked up an Arbuckle fumble and returned it 52 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter

Oregon total offense: 539 yards

Georgia State total offense: 431 yards

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Halftime Rapid Reaction: Behind the foot of Aidan Schneider, Oregon leads Georgia State 33-7

Barely a minute passed, and Oregon already found the end zone. Thanks to an interception and 41-yard return from defensive back Tyree Robinson on Georgia State’s first drive, the Ducks took an early seven-point advantage.

Oregon’s offense continued to increased that lead for the rest of the first half. With Vernon Adams Jr. sitting out and Jeff Lockie making his first start of his career, the Ducks scored on six of its seven drives and lead Georgia State 33-7.

Lockie went 10-of-17 for 117 yards and one touchdown. Running back Royce Freeman rushed for 101 yards and a score.

The biggest contribution came from the foot of Aidan Schneider, though. The kicker converted on all four his field goal attempts. The last time an Oregon kicker converted four field goals in a single game was former Ducks kicker Morgan Flint in 2009.

Key Plays:

– Oregon defensive back Tyree Robinson intercepts Georgia State’s first pass of the game and takes it back 41 yards for the first score of the game.

– On his first drive, Jeff Lockie leads Oregon on a 13-play, 58-drive, capped off by a 26-yard field goal from Aidan Schneider. 10-0 Oregon.

– Nick Arbuckle sneaks forward one yard for a Georgia State touchdown, capping a five-play, 75-yard drive. Arbuckles touchdown makes the score 13-7.

– Oregon’s offense finally finds the end zone, after Royce Freeman bounces a run outside and races 22 yards for a touchdown, making the score 20-7.

– Jeff Lockie connects with Dwayne Stanford on and screen pass and Stanford does the rest, taking it 35 yards for a score. 27-7 Oregon.

Three things to watch for in the second half:

– There was good for the Oregon secondary in the first half – Tyree Robinson had two deflected interceptions, including a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown – but there was reason for concern, too. Georgia State receiver Penny Hart eclipsed the century mark, posting eight receptions for 109 yards in the first half. Without Chris Seisay in the starting lineup, who didn’t play a snap in the first half after walking around in a protective boot earlier this week, the Ducks’ secondary looked vulnerable.

– While the secondary has been inconsistent, the Oregon pass rush proved to be a bright spot. On Georgia State’s fifth drive of the game, Oregon generated pressure on the quarterback, getting sacks from Torrodney Prevot and Christian French. Oregon came into the game with one sack in its first two games. A more aggressive pass rush could help the Ducks struggling secondary.

– When Oregon called Royce Freeman’s number in the first half, it worked– not much of a shocker there. Freeman had 10 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown in the first half. Freeman has proven that he’s worthy of shouldering an offensive load.

First half stats:

Oregon passing

Jeff Lockie: 10-of-16 for 117 yards and one touchdown.

Georgia State passing

Nick Arbuckle: 14-of-20 for 138 yards and two interceptions.

Oregon rushing

Royce Freeman: 10 carries for 101 yards and one touchdown.

Tony Brooks-James: Six carries for 25 yards.

Georgia State rushing

Kyler Neal: 13 carries for 30 yards.

Nick Arbuckle: Three carries for negative-nine yards and one touchdown.

Oregon receiving

Dwayne Stanford: Two receptions for 44 yards and one touchdown.

Charles Nelson: One reception for 44 yards.

Bralon Addison: Three receptions for 23 yards.

Georgia State receiving

Penny Hart: Eight receptions for 109 yards.

Keith Rucker: One reception for 20 yards.

Turnovers

Tyree Robinson intercepted Georgia State quarterback Nick Arbuckle twice in the first half, including a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown on the opening drive.

Oregon defensive back Juwaan Williams forced a fumble on a catch from Georgia State receiver Nyiakki Height. Oregon corner Arron Springs was there to recover.

Oregon total offense: 284 yards

Georgia State total offense: 164 yards

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Jeff Lockie to start at quarterback versus Georgia State

Vernon Adams Jr. will not start Saturday’s game versus Georgia State, Mark Helfrich confirmed to the Pac-12 Networks. Redshirt junior Jeff Lockie will start in his place at quarterback.

It was reported earlier this week that Adams was playing against Michigan State with a broken index finger on his throwing hand. After Oregon’s 31-28 loss to the Spartans last Saturday, Adams said that his finger was “all right.” However, it appears that the finger may be more of an issue than he or the coaches have said.

Friday, Comcast SportsNet reported that all signs were pointing to Jeff Lockie making the first start of his career.

“According to multiple sources, Lockie has taken the first-team reps during the week while Adams has practiced sparingly as he nurses a broken right index finger suffered during the team’s season opener against Eastern Washington on Sept. 5,” Aaron Fentress of CSN Northwest reported.

Saturday, those reports were confirmed. Lockie passed the ball just 28 times all of last season and completed 21 of them for 207 yards and one touchdown.

This will certainly be the most in-game experience the redshirt junior has received.

Follow Justin Wise on Twitter @JustinFWise

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