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Emerald roundtable: Oregon men’s basketball looks to carry momentum from Sunday into Washington game

Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tomorrow’s matchup between Oregon and Washington and what to expect in the future for the Ducks.

1) Oregon State trailed by three with about five minutes left on Sunday, but Oregon pulled away for a comfortable victory. Did you see anything different in how the Ducks  who have struggled in close games — handled this tight late-game situation?

Kim  The one area where I saw a difference lay with a more selective lineup. Winning close games essentially comes down to winning/being fortunate in more possessions than the opposing team down the stretch and the Ducks happened to the benefactors against the Beavers. It helped that the Ducks have been in six close games this season.

Kostecka  There was a big difference with Oregon and it came down to two things in my opinion: rebounding and attacking the rim on offense. Over the final five minutes, the Ducks consistently played with a 6-foot-8 center yet only gave up one offensive rebound to the much taller Beavers while collecting seven defensive rebounds and two offensive ones. On offense, instead of settling for contested jumpers, Oregon kept attacking the rim and getting fouled, making 14-of-16 free throws to seal the win. The Ducks looked like the more composed and experienced team — something they’ve undoubtedly learned since Pac-12 play began.

Guernsey  They got stops and made their free throws. Plain and simple. Hitting 14 free throws in the final three minutes is huge when the game is close. The Beavers kept fouling into the final minute to give the best free throw-shooting team in the Pac-12 ample opportunities to capitalize and stretch its lead. Oregon tightened up on defense, which is huge considering all the struggles the Ducks have had defensively all season.

2) C.J. Wilcox is third in the Pac-12 in scoring (18.8 points per game) and torched the Ducks in Washington’s 80-76 victory on Jan. 23. What’s the key to stopping Wilcox and will the Ducks do it on Wednesday?

Kim  At this point, the Ducks shouldn’t necessarily be concerned with stopping C.J. Wilcox because he will get his numbers regardless of what the Ducks do. As for any good player, the only thing the Ducks can do is keep whoever is guarding Wilcox fresh and make him take contested jumpers. Plain and simple, one player cannot win a game.

Kostecka  I don’t know if there is a way to completely stop Wilcox because he’s such a crafty scorer by being able to catch and shoot or put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. The best thing to do is contain him and not let anyone else on Washington beat you. That being said, I would switch up different men to guard Wilcox. I’d send out the quick-handed Johnathan Loyd on him sometimes, then switch to Damyean Dotson and see if his length can bother him and then let Richard Amardi or Elgin Cook use their strength to beat him down. Sending a multitude of defenders at Wilcox throughout the game should frustrate him and never let him get into a proper rhythm.

Guernsey  Wilcox will get his points one way or another. The best thing Oregon can do to limit the damage is take away his outside shot, for one. Wilcox is the best three-point shooter on the Huskies at 39.9 percent and shoots over seven threes per game. But the Ducks can’t let him inside either. Wilcox is an excellent foul shooter at 86.6 percent on the year, so Oregon really needs to play lock down D up top and force him into mid-range jumpers.

3) “Must win” is often an overused phrase, but the Ducks are currently sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble. If the Ducks lose to Washington, are their tournament hopes destroyed?

Kim  I wouldn’t go as far as to say destroyed, but it would mean the Ducks would have to definitely win out the other five remaining games. Every remaining game is vital in regards to receiving an NCAA tournament bid and a loss to the Huskies would only further diminish a limited possibility for the Ducks, who are currently on the fence.

Kostecka  Yes, only in the sense that Oregon doesn’t win the Pac-12 tournament. Many bracketologists have Oregon out of the NCAA tournament right now but I think the Ducks control their own fate in the fact that if they win all their remaining regular season games they’re in. A loss in any of the remaining six games will have Oregon settling for a berth in the NIT rather than playing in the NCAA tournament.

Guernsey  Not destroyed, but certainly diminished. Oregon’s current resume isn’t strong enough and while a win over Washington won’t help it much, a loss would make it much worse. The good news for the Ducks is that they still have UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State on the schedule, so there’s a few opportunities to boost their resume as Selection Sunday approaches. Plus the automatic bid from the Pac-12 Tournament gives all 12 teams a chance.

4) Who wins on Wednesday and what will be the margin of victory?

Kim — The Ducks will carry over their success from Oregon State and pick up the win against Washington. Similar to the Oregon State game, the Ducks will win by a comfortable margin. The mood of the Oregon players was noticeably more positive following a much needed win and I believe this will be the biggest factor in their success.

Kostecka  Like I said last week, I’m sticking with Oregon to win out and make the NCAA tournament. There was something different in the Ducks during the Civil War, almost like they knew they were going to win and the thought of losing never crept into their mind, a confidence they’ve lacked since Pac-12 play began. With that mindset, Oregon will get a convincing 87-73 win and continue on with its winning ways.

Guernsey   Oregon wins but not by much. Both teams will be pumped on the rivalry and need to win, so it’ll be a hard-fought battle that should include lots of outside shooting. Joseph Young is a great closer and will hit clutch free throws to clinch a seven-point win for the Ducks.

Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd

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Emerald Roundtable: Oregon men’s basketball to battle Beavers at home on Sunday

Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tomorrow’s matchup between Oregon and Oregon State and what to expect in the future for the Ducks.

1) Will the Ducks make the NCAA tournament?

Madison Guernsey — It doesn’t look like it. Their resume isn’t nearly good enough. The 3-8 conference record reflects the true quality of this team more than their 12-0 non-conference record does. This team hasn’t been able to win close games lately and is now 2-5 in games decided by five points or less. That’s a huge difference between this team and the team that went to the sweet 16 last season, which finished 7-3 in games decided by five points or less. They’ll have to run the table over the next couple weeks and win at least a game or two in the Pac-12 Tournament to continue playing into late March.

Ryan Kostecka — If I was a betting man, I’d have to say no. The fact that they’re still on the bubble for many analysts’ brackets right now means that the people who decide which teams make the tournament are keen on the Ducks being one of the 68-teams. I think the Ducks need to turn things around and win out in their regular season, including wins over the top-three teams in the Pac-12, and steal two games in the Pac-12 tournament to make March Madness a reality. Arizona is clearly a different team without Brandon Ashley and with Oregon facing both the Wildcats and Arizona State in the last weekend of the regular season, a sweep of those teams will be the deciding factor.

Hayden Kim — As of now, I would say no. But with seven games remaining and five of them being at home, the Ducks—believe it or not—still have a chance to not only finish the season with 20 wins and an above .500 conference record, but also finish with 20 wins. Having said that, the Ducks still have a fighting chance. The Ducks are currently No. 42 in the most recent RPI rankings.

2) Which player needs to step up the most for Oregon to make it to the tournament?

Madison Guernsey — Dominic Artis. This guy hasn’t been noticeable at all this season. His numbers aren’t terribly down compared to last season, but he provided a noticeable spark to the team as a freshman. This year his shooting percentages are down, as are his assists, points and steals. Last season Oregon had Johnathan Loyd and Damyean Dotson come up huge in the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments, and it’ll take at least another player catching fire to give Oregon a chance at making a similar run.

Ryan Kostecka — Not player, but coach, as in head coach Dana Altman. Altman needs to find a lineup that’s going to give Oregon an idea of what they’re going to do each game. The Ducks can’t keep having different lineups this late in February, including no real sixth man off the bench. Who’s the sixth man; Elgin Cook, Jason Calliste, Johnathon Loyd? Also, Oregon is so successful in the press but when is it too much that it starts the hurt the team? The Ducks still have a lot of questions left unanswered and the majority of them can be answered by the man calling the plays.

Hayden Kim — Mike Moser has technically been the No. 2 guy on offense since the beginning of the year and it will be the case moving forward despite his slump in Pac-12 play. Moser is currently averaging 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, but it is very apparent that his production has dipped significantly amid the Ducks struggles. If the Ducks want to make a serious late season run, it will have to be in conjunction with the big man.

3) Who’s more important for Oregon to contain, Roberto Nelson or Eric Moreland?

Madison Guernsey — Moreland. Roberto Nelson can score, and score, and score some more but he isn’t the only guy capable of filling it up on Oregon State. Moreland, on the other hand, is the only player who can rebound. If Oregon can contain him inside and disallow him to get offensive rebounds, they’ll take away their biggest inside presence.

Ryan Kostecka — Moreland for sure. Nelson is going to get his points and that’s fine but if the Ducks are going to be successful, they’ll need to contain Moreland because he’s the biggest difference at the Ducks’ weakest spot. Moreland put up 15 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and three steals in OSU’s 80-72 victory just under a month ago and was the main catalyst from his low-post position, grabbing rebound after rebound and protecting the rim against Oregon’s penetrating guards.

Hayden Kim — The last time the Ducks met the Beavers, Eric Moreland racked up 15 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and three blocks. Moreland will be looking to do the same the second time around. With Moreland being the Beavers go to big man in the paint, it will be vital for the Ducks to contain Moreland as much as they can this Sunday.

4) Who will win on Sunday?

Madison Guernsey — Oregon. After dropping two heart-breakers last week and losing to Oregon State earlier this season, the Ducks will be fired up and play hungry. Their play has gotten better and the full court press is very effective when applied. The game on Sunday will say a lot about the state of this team and whether they have it in them to replicate last season’s success.

Ryan Kostecka — Oregon. The Ducks realize that this is do-or-die time and I think this team has a lot of fight in them, as evidenced in their last game when they came back from being down 20+ points to take the lead in the final minute against Arizona State. Playing in front of an expected crazy student section will be the key to rattling Oregon State and propelling the Ducks into Tournament contention.

Hayden Kim — Oregon will win by a comfortable margin. Though it was a disappointing performance over at the Gill Coliseum earlier this season, the Ducks are at home and fully understand this is a do-or-die type of game. Moreland and Roberto Nelson will likely get their numbers, but I expect the Ducks to string it together on both ends of the court, especially on the offense, to pull out the much needed victory.  

Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd

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Emerald Roundtable: Oregon baseball starts off the season in Hawaii

Every week during baseball season, our sports staff will discuss various topics surrounding an upcoming Oregon series. Today, Emerald digital sport editor Victor Flores and sports reporters Andrew Bantly and Chris Mosch discuss the Ducks’ 2014 outlook and their season-opening series against Hawaii in Honolulu. The first game starts tonight at 8:35 p.m. PT.

1) Should the Ducks lower their season expectations now that Cole Irvin is out for the season?

Flores — The starting rotation will still be good, but Irvin’s injury leaves a significant amount of concern for the third starter slot. Irvin, Tommy Thorpe and Matt Krook would’ve made up one of the best starting rotations in the Pac-12 (assuming Krook came close to his sky-high expectations). Now, it looks like Jordan Spencer will replace Irvin, and who knows if he can be a consistently decent starter? And consistently decent would still be worse than Irvin’s likely output. Oregon won’t fall off a cliff without Irvin, but don’t expect the Ducks to be quite as good as some expected.

Bantly — Not at all. Thorpe said that he doesn’t “expect anything different for this year after Cole going down.” I think he’s right. The expectations are for a CWS run and, even without Irvin, they could have a dominant pitching rotation to lead them there. But with that said, they don’t have room to slip up.

Mosch — When you lose arguably your best starting pitcher, it’s hard not to temper expectations. The silver lining for Oregon is that the loss comes from its biggest strength, as Tommy Thorpe and Matt Krook still have the makings of a formidable 1-2 punch. Spencer has shown flashes of excellences in the past (recall his no-hitter against Portland two years ago) but has also struggled with his control, as he has walked as many batters as he has struck out during his two seasons at Oregon.

2) Who will be the toughest player to replace this season: Ryon Healy, Jimmie Sherfy, J.J. Altobelli, Brett Thomas or someone else?

Flores — Healy is irreplaceable. Not many teams in the nation had a bat as good as his last season, much less the Ducks. Healy hit 11 home runs in 2013, nearly half as many as Oregon’s total (24). Only Heineman and Shaun Chase hit over three blasts last year. Mitchell Tolman (Healy’s replacement) hit one. Altobelli’s defense, Thomas’ on-base abilities and Sherfy’s shutdown of ninth innings will all be missed, but the Ducks have the personnel to at least somewhat replace their contributions. Almost none of the Ducks can replace Healy’s.

Bantly — I think replacing the bat of Healy just won’t happen. Healy is someone who had the “green light” for the Ducks but they don’t have that power threat. Not to say that the Ducks are in trouble offensively. With Tolman, Kyle Garlick and maybe even Scott Heineman will hit a lot of doubles.

Mosch — Replacing Healy will be the toughest task for Oregon and its best chance to replace his bat in the middle of the order will be Kyle Garlick. The Oregon slugger broke out in 2012, smashing six home runs and producing a .287/.382/.470 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) slash line but was limited to just ten games last season due to a wrist injury. A healthy season from Garlick will be Oregon’s best chance to replace Healy’s production, but breakout campaigns from guys like Tyler Baumgartner or Mitchell Tolman could also soften the blow.

3) Can Jake Reed at least approach Sherfy’s level as the closer?

Flores — Reed said he’s hit 96 miles per hour and consistently throws in the 93-95 mph range. That’s a great sign if it’s true. Of course, velocity doesn’t mean everything and he doesn’t have Sherfy’s filthy slider, but Reed has shown solid control and command as a starter in the past. And he only needs to be good for one inning — two, at most. I expect Reed’s results to be fairly close to Sherfy’s from past seasons.

Bantly — I don’t think so. But I don’t think the Ducks need Reed to be Sherfy-like and nor do I think they expect him to. First of all, Reed doesn’t have a breaking pitch that can compare to Sherfy’s slider. But Reed struggled last year because of the “big inning,” and in the closer role the opposing team won’t have three, four or five innings to pick up his tendencies.

Mosch — Reed doesn’t have the classic profile of a closer, as he’s sported a mediocre strikeout rate (5.54 K/9) out of the rotation during his first two seasons. Even with increased velocity, Reed won’t come close to the rate at which Sherfy was able to miss bats out of the bullpen. Sherfy set the bar so high that it would be difficult to expect anyone (outside of perhaps Garrett Cleavinger) to be quite as effective in the ninth inning, but Reed should serve as a solid stopper nonetheless.

4) How will Oregon fare in this weekend series against Hawaii?

Flores — Oregon had three times as many wins (48) as Hawaii last season. The Ducks are much better and should take three out of four, and a sweep would not be unexpected. Even with some question marks in the rotation, Oregon should have no problem this weekend.

Bantly — I think Oregon should and will sweep the series. The Ducks are talented enough to dominate this Rainbow Warriors team as they did last year. I think the starters all perform well and the offense gets going early. What I will keep my eye on, however, is how freshman catcher Jack Kruger will perform in his first series.

Mosch — Hawaii is coming off a disappointing 16-35 season in which they finished last in the Big West conference in nearly every offensive statistic. Only two Warrior hitters managed more than one home run and they graduated two of their three weekend starters. While Oregon has its own question marks, the Ducks should have no problem taking at least three of the four games in Honolulu.

Follow Victor Flores on Twitter @vflores415
Follow Andrew Bantly on Twitter @abant3
Follow Chris Mosch on Twitter @chris_mosch

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Emerald Roundtable: Oregon women’s basketball looks to bounce back against Utah, Colorado

Every week during women’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Jonathan Hawthorne, Chris Keizur and Joseph Hoyt discuss Saturday’s matchup between Oregon and Utah and Monday’s game between the Ducks and Colorado.

1) How concerned should Oregon be by its 97-94 loss against Arizona State last week?

Hawthorne – Oregon doesn’t need to preoccupy itself. ASU is one of the best teams in the Pac-12 at 9-2 in conference play. The Ducks hung around with the Sun Devils and shot an impressive 46.4 percent from the field behind Chrishae Rowe’s 39 points. If anything, that game proved to the Ducks what can happen when Paul Westhead’s system is run efficiently. You can mark down ASU’s Feb. 28 return to Eugene as a good one.

Keizur – I think they should be annoyed more than anything. Coming off a three-game winning streak, it would have been nice to see the Ducks cap it off with a win against a top-25 team. This is an Oregon team that has reached a point in the season where every loss is gut-wrenching. So rather than be concerned, it would be nice to see the loss propel them into their upcoming four-game homestand.

Hoyt – Oregon should use its performance against the Sun Devils as a benchmark. Winning in Tempe is never easy, especially against the No. 15 team in the nation. With the reemergence of Lexi Petersen, and Ariel Thomas returning from injury, Oregon appears to be hitting its stride. It’ll be interesting to see how they fair against Colorado and Utah this weekend.

2) What does senior point guard Ariel Thomas’ return to the court mean for the Ducks?

Hawthorne – Thomas’ return is great news for the Ducks. She’s a vocal leader and provides Weathead with vital experience on this young Ducks team. Her ability to run the system efficiently and with ease will allow the Ducks to be even deeper on the bench.

Keizur – The main thing she brings to the court is a calming presence. This is a young Oregon team, so any senior leadership they can get is crucial. Thomas has been the number one distributor on this team, so look to see improved ball movement on the offensive end this week.

Hoyt – Without Thomas in the picture, Lexi Petersen stepped up and provided a spark for Oregon, helping them to a three-game winning streak. Back from injury, Thomas brings leadership to the court and a veteran presence at the point guard position. The combo of her, and Petersen, moving forward is the best possible lineup for head coach Paul Westhead.

3) What do the Ducks need to improve upon this week?

Hawthorne – The Ducks need to make sure that heading into this weekend, they are well-prepared to be resilient at home, like they were last weekend against the Washington schools. Even when Washington made a run at the Ducks, they were able to pull through and hold onto the win.

Keizur – Shooting percentage seems to be a constant struggle with this team. Some may point to the system in place as part of the problem, but the Ducks need to find a way to be more efficient with their shots. As a team, they are shooting a rather abysmal 38.7 percent from the field. If they can raise that percentage they should find themselves with a nice winning streak to end the season.

Hoyt – From behind the arc, Oregon’s been inconsistent. When the team shoots well, they win. Improving consistency, especially from three-point range, is crucial for Oregon against two mediocre visiting teams this weekend.

4) What will it take for Oregon to pick up wins against Utah and Colorado this weekend? Will the Ducks win both, split or lose both?

Hawthorne – If Oregon plays the same quality of basketball as it did at the Arizona schools last weekend, the Ducks will find themselves up 2-0 in this four game homestand. Oregon needs to remember the importance of wearing down the opponent and running the system for the entirety of the game.

Keizur – Oregon will need to look to keep pushing the ball at their breakneck tempo while maintaining some semblance of control. Turnovers have plagued this team and derailed plenty of potential wins, so if they limit those careless plays, they can be very dangerous. Don’t sleep on their home record, either. The Ducks are 10-2 in the friendly confines of Matthew Knight Arena this season. I expect two wins this weekend.

Hoyt – Oregon has struggled against taller opposition this year. Ruth Hamblin (Oregon State) posted a triple double against the Ducks last month, and Arizona State’s Joy Burke dominated the interior of Oregon’s defense this past weekend. Against Colorado and Utah, Oregon won’t have to worry about opposing height being an issue. Both teams don’t have a player that stands taller than 6-foot-4, which should be a welcome sight to the nation’s leading rebounder, Jillian Alleyne. The Ducks need to take at least one, and should take both against the visiting teams this weekend.

Follow Jonathan Hawthorne on Twitter @Jon_Hawthorne
Follow Chris Keizur on Twitter @chriskeizur

Follow Joseph Hoyt on Twitter @jhoyt42

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Emerald Roundtable: Oregon men’s basketball heads to Arizona for crucial two games

Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tonight’s matchup between Oregon and Arizona and Saturday’s game between the Ducks and Arizona State.

1) How crucial is this Arizona road trip for Oregon’s NCAA tournament hopes? Do they need to beat both Arizona schools or just one?

Hayden Kim – With just nine games remaining this season, the Ducks understand just how important each and every game is from here on out. Sitting at ninth in the Pac-12 and 42nd in the most recent RPI rankings, the Ducks will need to at least split their upcoming road trip. The Ducks won’t be favored against No. 2 Arizona by any means, but if they can manage to pull off an upset following the Wildcats first loss of the season, it would most likely solidify a spot for Oregon in the NCAA tournament.

Madison Guernsey – Oregon needs to win both games to have a good chance at making the NCAA Tournament. With a 3-6 record in conference play, zero wins against AP top 25 teams and just one win against a top 55 RPI team (Ole Miss), these two games are huge in terms of building Oregon’s tournament resume. Arizona is No. 2 in both the AP poll and RPI rankings, and Arizona State has the 46th best RPI. Per the current AP poll, Oregon has just two games remaining against ranked opponents, both against Arizona.

Ryan Kostecka – Because of the Pac-12’s lack of star power combined with how poorly the Ducks played in the beginning of the conference season, Oregon needs at least a split to have a chance. A clean sweep of the Arizona schools would put them in the tournament but two losses would take them out. The best scenario is a sweep but a split is needed. It should be noted that Oregon gets both Arizona schools on the last weekend of the regular season at home, so the Ducks will once again have to split if they win out to that point or win both games if they continue to struggle.

2) Have the Ducks shown significant improvement these last three games (wins over Washington State and USC and a two-point loss to UCLA) or are they still mostly similar to the team that lost its first five Pac-12 games?

Hayden Kim – From a confidence standpoint, the Ducks are near where they were prior to going on their five-game skid. Though the Ducks haven’t looked anywhere near as good offensively since beginning conference play, they are doing just enough to stay competitive in games. These past three games have shown improvement on the defensive end and it may just be the late- season spark the Ducks have been looking for.

Madison Guernsey – It’s tough to say. A win over the lowly Cougars of Washington State doesn’t give Oregon’s apparent turnaround any validity. The Ducks played well against UCLA but couldn’t finish. After an awful first half against a bad USC team, they applied full-court pressure and looked like a different team. They’ve gotten better defensively, although they allowed the poor shooting Trojans to hit 49 percent of their field goals. When it comes down to it, Oregon has improved, but not enough to be an entirely different team. Long answer short, they’re mostly similar to the team that lost its first five Pac-12 games.

Ryan Kostecka – This is a completely different Ducks team from the squad that lost five straight, but that’s only purely from a confidence standpoint. Oregon is back to shooting decent (especially from Joseph Young and Jason Calliste), so they have every reason to be confident against a weakened Arizona team. Defensively, they’re pressuring the ball more and showing more effort but anything short of 40 minutes of hard work will result in a loss.

3) How much of a blow is Brandon Ashley’s injury to Arizona’s outlook against Oregon and the rest of the season?

Hayden Kim – There is no question how big a loss Brandon Ashley’s season-ending injury is to the No. 2-ranked Wildcats. Ashley, who was averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds was one of the vital players in a strict Sean Miller lineup and now they will have to look elsewhere. Luckily for Arizona, they have a formidable replacement in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is more than capable of giving the Ducks some trouble in the paint. In regards to the rest of the season, the Wildcats won’t be at 100 percent, but with how much depth they have, that shouldn’t be too much of a problem.

Madison Guernsey – It hurts, no question. But the rest of the Pac-12 is nowhere near Arizona’s level and can be beaten on any given night. The Wildcats should still easily win the conference outright and probably the conference tournament, but Ashley’s injury may be more prevalent come March.

Ryan Kostecka – This is the Wildcats most complete team I’ve seen since I lived in Arizona 15 years ago. Ashley’s injury hurts, not for the Pac-12 but more on a national scale. The Wildcats are still head-and-shoulders above the conference so the injury won’t hurt their conference championship hopes much. He’s been Arizona’s most consistent big man all year, but apart from Hollis-Jefferson, the Wildcats don’t have much depth down low. This injury has the possibility of leaving a lasting scar.

4) Who wins the Arizona and Arizona State games, and why?

Hayden Kim –  I think the Ducks will give Arizona a good game tonight and lose by less than 10 due to their recent spurt in confidence and improvement in defense. In order to do so, however, the Ducks will need to get the Wildcats big men in early foul trouble. Against Arizona State, the Ducks will pull out the win by winning the paint. The Sun Devils aren’t among the better rebounding teams in the conference and that will allow the Ducks to play their game smoothly.

Madison Guernsey – No upset alert for Arizona, although the Ducks will play the Wildcats tough and stay within reach until late in the second half. The ‘Cats are too good and Oregon’s been too inconsistent to pull off an upset of this magnitude. Saturday’s game against Arizona State will be much more competitive, but Oregon will have a tough time containing Jahii Carson and ASU’s three-point shooting (40.4 percent). They’ll also have to deal with 7-foot-2 center Jordan Bachynski, who unlike USC’s Omar Oraby, is very productive. Plus, the Sun Devils are 11-1 at home.

Ryan Kostecka – Neither of these matchup’s favor Oregon. Oregon is going to need to beat up Arizona down low and get the big men into foul trouble, but the Ducks don’t have enough strength in the post to do so and the guards will find it tough to penetrate against Nick Johnson and T.J. McConnell of Arizona. Oregon will stay close in the first half before being run out of the McKale Center with a 15-20-point loss. Arizona State has one of the best guards in the country in Jahii Carson and given how weak the Ducks’ defense is, Carson could go off for 30-plus. Combine him with Bachynksi, the Ducks will be traveling back to Eugene 0-2.

Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd

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Emerald roundtable: Predictions for Oregon vs. Arizona

Every week during football season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game. Today, sports reporters Chris Mosch, Madison Guernsey and Chris Keizur discuss today’s matchup between Oregon and Arizona.

1) What does Oregon have to do to come out of the desert with a win?

Chris Mosch – Oregon’s success on Saturday will be determined by how they handle the running game on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they’ll need to limit the damage Ka’Deem Carey — the reigning NCAA rushing champion — does on the ground. Offensively, Oregon needs to reestablish its running game coming off its two worst rushing performances of the season against Stanford and Utah. Byron Marshall got just 11 touches in each of those games, which is a trend that cannot continue.

Madison Guernsey – They need to stay consistent and get the running game back on track. We’ll see how Marcus Mariota’s knee feels, but his ability to run will play a large role in the final outcome of the game. As always, they have to win the turnover battle and find a way to try and contain Ka’Deem Carey. The Ducks run defense is allowing less than three and a half yards per carry this season, but Carey is a different animal. He and B.J. Denker will test Oregon’s defense early, so if the Ducks can jump out to an early lead Arizona will be forced to go to the air.

Chris Keizur – To win this game Oregon will have to be able to get back to running the ball, something they have struggled with of late. Last week against an admittedly strong Utah run defense, Oregon was only able to muster 145 yards. This was well off their average of 285.9 yards per game. Look for Byron Marshall to take on the brunt of the duties, with Marcus Mariota still dealing with his injury and De’Anthony Thomas playing more out of the slot.

2) What does Arizona have to do to upset the Ducks?

Chris Mosch – Quarterback B.J. Denker can’t be afraid to air it out downfield. It is well established that Denker is a dual-threat that can take off, but he needs to be able to spread the field so Oregon can’t simply stack the box against Carey. Denker hasn’t completed a pass of more than 27 yards in either of his last two games, which will need to change for Arizona to keep up with Oregon’s potent offense. 

Madison Guernsey – Force turnovers, above all a Mariota interception or two. Oregon’s success has in part been a result of their quarterback’s careful ball handling, so the Wildcats will need to do all they can to disrupt Mariota and force him out of the pocket on a bum knee. It won’t hurt if Carey and Denker play up to their potential, either.

Chris Keizur – To beat Oregon you have to score, so Arizona will have to do everything in its power to find the endzone on Saturday. Luckily they have the top running back in the nation, Ka’Deem Carey, who has already rushed for 1353 yards and 12 touchdowns. They also need to win the turnover battle, giving themselves as many extra possessions as possible while keeping Oregon’s offense off the field.

3) How will Oregon’s defense fare against Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey?

Chris Mosch – Oregon was the last team to limit to Arizona to less than 100 yards on the ground, but I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s performance. Oregon’s run defense hasn’t matched up well against quality ground games this season, as Bishop Sankey ran wild for 167 yards on 28 carries, UCLA’s number two and three running backs combined for 157 yards on 34 carries and Tyler Gaffney was able to pound first down after first down up the middle against the Ducks. I expect Carey to run for about 150 yards against Oregon on Saturday.

Madison Guernsey – Oregon’s run defense is good. But so is Carey. The junior tailback hasn’t failed to eclipse 100 yards in any game this season and that won’t change Saturday. Expect Arizona to lean heavily on Carey until they have to throw downfield, giving him a generous workload early on. He’ll wear down Oregon’s defense for a total of 145 yards and a couple scores.

Chris Keizur – As I mentioned earlier, Carey is tough to handle. Oregon shouldn’t look to stop him, instead being content to simply contain him and limit big plays. They should pack in the box and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air. It will also be important for the outside defenders to keep contain and force him back inside towards help. Carey will be good, but the Ducks have already shown they can do a decent job slowing down powerful runners. Carey will end the game with 100 yards and a touchdown.

4) Most intriguing storyline to watch?

Chris Mosch – Is Marcus Mariota’s knee really close to 100 percent? Offensive coordinator Scott Frost indicated after last week’s game that may be the case, perhaps to the point that Oregon’s play-caller may no longer need the knee brace that he has worn since the second half of the UCLA game. The read-option is an element that has been missing from Oregon’s offense the last few games, so it will be interesting to see whether Mariota will return to being a running threat on Saturday.

Madison Guernsey – Marcus Mariota’s left knee against Arizona’s defense. He was reluctant to leave the pocket all day last weekend against Utah and totaled just rush attempt. He and coaches were optimistic about the injury this week but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be back to full form this weekend.

Chris Keizur – How could you not bring up Marcus Mariota for most interesting storyline. Against Utah he looked rough, obviously playing through his left knee injury. He was unable to generate any attack using his speed, instead content to sit in the back in the pocket for most of the game. Fans will watch to see if he looks healthier. Keep in mind Mariota still has an outside chance of winning the Heisman, and a big individual game tomorrow would go a long way in helping.

 5) Final score?

Chris Mosch – This won’t be quite the thrashing last year’s 49-0 win was, but the Ducks will still beat Arizona comfortably. Oregon wins 49-24. 

Madison Guernsey – Oregon looks like their old selves, scoring early and often in bunches. They don’t let Denker get comfortable and force Arizona to rely on the running game and drain the clock. The Ducks even kick a field goal and win 52-17.

Chris Keizur – The forecast is for rain so the Ducks should be right at home, getting back to their high-octane ways. Oregon will win 45-14.

Follow Chris Mosch on Twitter @chris_mosch
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd
Follow Chris Keizur on Twitter @chriskeizur

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Emerald Roundtable: MLB Championship Series predictions

The National League Championship Series starts tonight with the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis. Tomorrow, the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox for the first game of ALCS. Today, digital sports editor Victor Flores and sports reporters Madison Guernsey and Chris Mosch preview the two series and predict which pair of teams will represent their leagues in the World Series.

1) What was the biggest surprise from the Divisional Series?

Victor Flores — Two teams (the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates) took 2-1 leads in their series only to lose the final two games. The A’s, in particular, looked like they were moving on, but their bullpen threw a banana peel right in their path. Oakland was ahead of Detroit 3-0 through five innings and 4-3 through seven, but the relievers gave up five runs in the 7th and 8th innings to lose the game. Game 5 felt like a Tigers win early on because Justin Verlander is a freak of nature. The Pirates never let a lead slip like the A’s, but they still had two games (the first at home) against the Cardinals to advance, but they couldn’t come through. Blowing 2-1 LDS leads isn’t uncommon, but it felt like at least one of those two teams would be showering themselves with champagne.

Madison Guernsey — No Cinderellas. It seems like an oxymoron for a round with no upsets to be surprising, but the field was so even this postseason that a team like the Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays seemed destined to make a deep postseason run.

Chris Mosch — For the Rays to have any chance against the Red Sox, they needed David Price to be the ace that he was for much of the second half. That was far from what actually happened, as Boston jumped over the southpaw early and often in Game 2 and tagged Price for seven runs in seven innings. Price never got the chance to avenge his poor showing, as the Red Sox made quick work of the Rays, winning the ALDS in four games. There’s a good chance that this was Price’s final game for the Rays, the organization he has spent his entire career with. Rumors have swirled that the Rays will shop Price during the offseason, given the small-market organization’s history of shopping their homegrown talent once they become too expensive.

2) All four favored LDS teams advanced to the next round. Is it good or bad for baseball when the favorites beat the underdogs?

Victor Flores — Good. Casual fans would probably struggle to name more than 10 players combined from the four losing LDS teams (the A’s, Rays, Pirates and Atlanta Braves), but they almost certainly know Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Yasiel Puig, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Beltran and many others on the final four squads. When the best players compete for the World Series, fans are more likely to tune in. Plus, baseball benefits when the best team (or close to it) prevails in the postseason. Seeing sub-90-win wild card teams get the World Series trophy exposes the flaws of the postseason format.

Madison Guernsey — Good and bad. The “favorites” advancing after facing series deficits is a testament to how good they really are. But from a fan’s perspective, the early exit of the underdogs provides fewer storylines and perhaps less excitement. In the end, the bottom line is that the best teams moved on and will likely provide the most entertaining baseball heading forward.

Chris Mosch — Baseball fans may be disappointed not to get a World Series featuring the Pirates and Athletics, but there’s a good chance that we get a Red Sox-Dodgers series, a matchup that would be an instant classic. While the Boston-Los Angeles rivalry has a rich history on the basketball court, these two organizations haven’t squared off for baseball’s top prize since 1916, when the Boston Red Sox defeated the Brooklyn Robins in five games.

3) Which player has impressed you the most so far?

Victor Flores — Cardinals rookie Michael Wacha pitched beautifully in limited time (64.2 innings pitched) during the regular season, but he might never have better performance than he did Game 4 of the NLDS. Wacha pitched 7.1 innings in that game, giving up just one hit (a solo home run to Pedro Alvarez) and two walks, while recording nine strikeouts. Down in the series 2-1 and playing Game 4 on the road, people might have expected the rookie to be nervous. Wacha slapped that narrative in the face, keeping the Cardinals alive for one more game. As we know now, he kept them alive for even longer.

Madison Guernsey — There are several players worthy of most impressive. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, Juan Uribe, Hanley Ramirez, but the most impressive player in my eyes has been Carl Crawford. After recovering from an injury and having a rather pedestrian regular season, Crawford has excelled this postseason, hitting three home runs and having an OPS of 1.303.

Chris Mosch — The demise of Justin Verlander appears to have been slightly exaggerated. The Detroit hurler had a poor regular season by “Verlander standards,” as his 3.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were his worst marks since 2008. The biggest concern about Verlander this season was the reduced velocity on his fastball. The right-hander’s heater averaged just a tick over 94 MPH this season, which was a full MPH down from last season and nearly two MPH off his average velocity during his 2011 Cy Young Award campaign. Verlander dominated during his two starts against Oakland, striking out 21 and scattering just six hits across 15 scoreless innings of work. It’s no coincidence that he dialed his fastball up to 95.39 MPH during those two starts. The six-time All-Star is scheduled to take the hill against Boston in Game 3 of the ALCS.

4) Who wins the NLCS? Why?

Victor Flores — The Dodgers are headed to the World Series for the first time since Kirk Gibson limped his way around the bases on one of the most iconic home runs in baseball history. With starting pitchers like Kershaw, Zach Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles doesn’t need a great bullpen or lineup to beat the Cardinals. Luckily for the Dodgers, their bullpen and lineup are well-above average. While St. Louis is close to LA in aspect of the game, they might not have an advantage in any of them. That’s how deep the Dodgers are. Playoff baseball is about as predictable Eugene weather, so being the better all-around team doesn’t always translate into World Series appearances. That said, LA will still find a way to break through in a bunch of tight games. Dodgers in six.

Madison Guernsey — This is a tough call. I originally picked the Cardinals to represent the National League in the Fall Classic, but the Dodgers don’t look like they can be beat right now. St. Louis has the most resilient club in baseball, but the boys in blue have a ridiculous roster that is continuing to fire on all cylinders. LA wins in a dramatic seven-game series.

Chris Mosch — The Dodgers have the advantage of finishing off the Braves on Monday and being able to set their rotation, while the Cardinals had to send their ace Adam Wainwright to the mound on Wednesday to finish off the Pirates. Zack Greinke versus Joe Kelly in Game 1 is a mismatch in the favor of the Dodgers and while Michael Wacha has been the hottest pitcher in baseball, he could easily be equalized by baseball’s best pitcher — Clayton Kershaw — in Game 2. The Cardinals are loaded with home-grown talent, but there’s a decent chance that they head to Los Angeles down 2-0 in the series. Give me the Dodgers in six, but if the Cardinals force a Game 7, they’ll likely have Wainwright going against either Hyun-Jin Ryu or Ricky Nolasco, which would favor the redbirds.

5) Who wins the ALCS? Why?

Victor Flores — The Tigers have the starting pitching advantage but the Red Sox are the better overall team. Again, that might not make a difference but this year feels a little different. Boston annihilated Tampa Bay in the previous round and look like they can score runs off of anyone. The Red Sox will continue their dominance, making Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Aníbal Sánchez and Doug Fister look like ordinary pitchers and winning this series easily. Sox in five.

Madison Guernsey — The Boston Red Sox will win the ALCS. They’ve been the best team with the best offense for most of the season, and they hardly faltered against the Rays. Their pitching staff is on par with Detroit’s and they have the lineup, and the beards, to finish off the Tigers in five games.

Chris Mosch — I originally picked the Tigers to reach the World Series, but after what I saw in the ALDS, I’m going to have to go with Boston. Despite coming up big with a two-run blast in Game 5, Miguel Cabrera is playing through a multitude of lower body injuries and has looked like a shell of his old self. The A’s were able to subdue Cabrera by painting the outside edge of the strike zone with plenty of fastballs, as the home run was Cabrera’s lone extra base hit of the series and just his third since the start of September. I expect Boston’s pitching staff to follow suit and take the series in seven.

 

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Emerald Roundtable: Predictions for Oregon vs. Colorado

Every week during football season, our sports staff will discuss different topics around an upcoming game. Today, sports reporters Joseph Hoyt, Ryan Kostecka and Hayden Kim discuss Saturday’s matchup between Oregon and Colorado.

1) What, if anything, can Colorado do to keep this game close?

Joseph Hoyt — After last weekend’s poor showing from quarterback Connor Wood, the Buffaloes need to get freshman running back Michael Adkins II the ball early, and often. Adkins may not be the fastest player, but he has the vision and toughness to be a workhorse and run between the tackles. A bounce-back game from Christian Powell wouldn’t hurt, either.

Ryan Kostecka — Honestly, there isn’t much Colorado can do to keep the game close. It’s not going to be anything the Buffaloes do but rather what the Ducks don’t do. If Oregon comes in complacent and doesn’t play at their expected level AND if Richardson and Adkins/Powell can get going for Colorado, there’s a chance. Don’t count on that happening, though.

Hayden Kim — The Colorado Buffaloes have one advantage over the Ducks and it lies in Paul Richardson. Richardson has racked up 487 yards on 26 receptions alongside five touchdowns and currently sits ninth all-time on the Colorado touchdown reception list. If the Buffaloes can manage to keep the game close, it will be in the air through Richardson.

2) Will Colorado’s Paul Richardson have another All-American-esque performance against the Ducks?

Joseph Hoyt — Richardson has looked good early in the season, but unfortunately for him, past achievements don’t guarantee future success, especially against the incredibly talented Oregon secondary. Whether it’s Ifo Ekpre-Olumu or Terrance Mitchell, Richardson will have a tough time getting open against whoever lines up opposite of him.

Ryan Kostecka — Not a chance in the world, and it’s not what for the reason you might expect. Richardson will not have a good game because Oregon’s defensive line and linebackers are going to harass Connor Wood into plenty of mistakes and he won’t be able to get the ball to Richardson. By the off chance Wood gets the rid off the ball, Richardson still has no chance because of Oregon’s All-American-caliber corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.

Hayden Kim — Richardson currently leads the Buffaloes in yards and touchdowns as one of the biggest deep threats in the country. With 300 more yards than the next man up on the receiving list, the Buffaloes will look to feed Richardson throughout the game. Considering the Oregon secondary hasn’t been challenged thus far this season, don’t be surprised if Richardson has a field day in the end zone.

3) Beside Marcus Mariota, who is Oregon’s most valuable player?

Joseph Hoyt — Although often overlooked, a successful football team begins, and ends in the trenches. Center Hroniss Grasu is the leader of an offensive line that currently blocks for the best rushing team in the country. Without Grasu, and the rest of the offensive line, those holes De’Anthony Thomas and Byron Marshall burst through would be a lot less gaping.

Ryan Kostecka — Derrick Malone. The first-year starter at linebacker has been a revelation for Nick Aliotti’s defense. After wondering all off-season who’s going to replace Michael Clay and Kiko Alonso, Malone has stepped up as the leader of the linebackers, leading Oregon in tackles with 35 tackles on the year, good enough for 8.5 per game. Malone’s play answered Oregon’s biggest question entering the season and is reason enough to give him the nod as MVP.

Hayden Kim — Oregon may feature two Heisman candidates in Marcus Mariota and De’Anthony Thomas, but Derrick Malone has been the MVP on the defensive end. Heading into the season, the question at the linebacker position was the biggest and Malone has answered with 38 total tackles this season. Malone has led an Oregon defense that has only allowed 43 points in their first four games and has helped create a new core of defensive players.

4) What will be the final score?

Joseph Hoyt — New head coach Mike MacIntyre has Colorado on an upwards trajectory, but they aren’t ready to compete with the No. 2 team in the country, yet. Oregon continues their theme of impressive rushing performances as they consistently race up and down Folsom Field, even without De’Anthony Thomas. Final score: Oregon 62, Colorado 17.

Ryan Kostecka — Oregon will continue to make history and score at least 50 points for the fifth straight game, improving on their current four-game streak. Colorado has improved but not nearly enough to fly with the Ducks. Oregon wins 59-13.

Hayden Kim — Vegas says the Ducks win by 38 ½ points and I say they are dead on. If the Oregon defense manages to keep their recent pace, the Ducks will cruise to their fifth win of the year. The only route Colorado has will be led by Paul Richardson and he will have to face off against a veteran Oregon secondary. Things aren’t looking too good for Colorado. Oregon 52, Colorado 17.

5) Who leaves Saturday undefeated: No. 5 Stanford or No. 15Washington?

Joseph Hoyt — Washington is a really, really good football team. But the Cardinal are just simply better. Hogan may not be considered one of the premier quarterbacks in the Pac-12, but he doesn’t need to be. Stanford is a team that will line up in jumbo formations (sometimes with eight or nine players on, or near, the offensive line) and run it down their oppositions’ throats, because they can. Washington will keep it close, but the Cardinal will eventually outlast the Huskies.

Ryan Kostecka — This question can have so many different answers for so many different reasons. The good news for Washington is that they are greatly improved and deserve its top-15 ranking in the country. The bad news, Stanford is better. Way better. Led by Kevin Hogan and a balanced offensive attack, the Cardinal will avenge last season’s lost and beat the Huskies 31-23. Their front seven will, in the end, handle the Washington athletes and conserve the victory.

Hayden Kim — This will arguably be one of the biggest Pac-12 games of the year. 15th-ranked Washington is heading to Palo Alto to try and knock off fifth-ranked Stanford and it will come down to the quarterback duel between Kevin Hogan and Keith Price. The two quarterbacks have combined for five interceptions heading into their second conference game and their team’s fate will lie in their mistakes, or lack thereof. Turnovers will be the difference in this game and if I had to pick, I’d go with Hogan playing in front of his home crowd.

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Emerald Roundtable: Predictions for Oregon vs. California

Every week during football season, our sports staff will discuss different topics around an upcoming game. Today, digital sports editor Victor Flores and sports reporters Christopher Keizur and Justin Wise discuss Saturday’s matchup between Oregon and California.

1) What will be the matchup that decides the game? Why?

Victor Flores – Fans are understandably excited to see Cal’s Jared Goff pass the ball, but the final outcome might be determined more by the plays when Goff hands the ball off. While the Ducks’ defense has been fine against the run this year, Oregon’s front seven — which features several first-year starters — hasn’t truly been tested yet. Cal’s running game on the other hand, has faced some tough run defenses in 2013 and has struggled to produce. It’s possible that Oregon’s run defense is actually worse than currently perceived while Cal’s run defense is better. A good game by the Bears on the ground could make them a serious threat to upset the Ducks.

Christopher Keizur – The matchup that will decide the game will be between Marcus Mariota and the California defensive ends. Anytime a team faces a zone read offense, it is important to be able to keep, contain and force the runners back to the inside. Whether Cal’s defensive ends can do this and stop Mariota from ripping off his devastating quarterback keepers will determine whether the Bears can stay in the game.

Justin Wise – In this Pac-12 opener for both teams, the essential matchup that will determine this game is Cal’s aerial attack against Oregon’s secondary. True freshman Jared Goff is second in the nation in passing yards and his average of over 56 passing attempts a game is the reason why. If Oregon’s highly-touted secondary can create turnovers early, which Goff and Cal have been prone to do, the game could wrap up shortly. Goff presents an unfamiliar challenge that will likely display the strengths and weaknesses of this pass defense.

 2) Score Prediction?

Victor Flores – Oregon will win 56-31, which looks closer than the game will actually be. The Ducks will run and pass all over California’s defense in the first half, and Oregon’s defensive backs will pester Cal’s receivers like flies buzzing around your face as you’re trying to write a term paper. The Bears will score most of their points in the fourth quarter when the Ducks are using their second-string players.

Christopher Keizur – This isn’t going to be a close game, so brace for the inevitable early exits from the student section. Oregon will have the game locked up by halftime, and they’ll win by a final score of 52-17.

Justin Wise – First year head coach Sonny Dykes and Cal will wrap up this daunting four-game stretch Saturday, in which they’ll have played three ranked opponents. This game could very well be the ugliest. Cal has the potential to cause some early fits like Tennessee did, but all signs point to more of the same on Saturday with a runaway victory for Marcus Mariota and company. Cal’s offense will generate some points, however this one won’t be close. Oregon 59-27.

3) Who will throw for more yards: Marcus Mariota or Jared Goff? Why?

Victor Flores – The difference in their yard totals will be fairly close when the game ends, but Goff will end up passing for more simply because the Ducks will stop throwing by the third quarter. Plus, Goff will face some of Oregon’s second-stringers midway through the fourth quarter. That said, Mariota will put up big numbers in the first half just like he did against Tennessee two weeks ago.

Christopher Keizur – Despite Mariota being a favorite for the Heisman, I think Jared Goff will end with more yards through the air. The Ducks are going to start running the ball after taking an early lead, and I would be surprised if Mariota makes more than a cameo appearance in the third quarter. Plus, Goff throws the ball — a lot. Cal is currently second in the nation in passing yards per game.

Justin Wise – Mariota showed how much of a threat through the air he can be during his 456-yard passing performance in the Ducks’ 59-10 drubbing of Tennessee. However, he is only averaging about 27 passes a game compared to Goff’s 56. Understanding the disparities in each team’s attack points to Goff throwing for more yards. Does that mean Goff will have the better performance of the two? No, but Goff will be in a situation where he will have to pass a lot, especially if they are trailing throughout.

4) Both Dykes and Helfrich are the new head coaches. Who do you think can make the bigger impact on their team by the end of the season?

Victor Flores – Dykes has already made a bigger impact simply because he’s replaced a fired head coach (Jeff Tedford) instead of replacing one who chose to take a job elsewhere, like Helfrich did for Chip Kelly. Helfrich has done an admirable job replacing Kelly and he might be a better coach than Dykes, but he hasn’t introduced a new offense like Dykes has. Dykes is helping change an entire culture. Besides, Helfrich’s impact was felt long before he became head coach because he was the offensive coordinator under Kelly.

Christopher Keizur – Coach Helfrich was fortunate enough to adopt a talented football team from his predecessor, so there really aren’t many changes he needs to make. On the flip side, Coach Dykes helms a team that only won three games in 2012. He has a much steeper hill to climb in terms of changing the mindset and identity of his team.

Justin Wise – Sonny Dykes and Mark Helfrich are in entirely different situations as first-year head coaches. Helfrich undertakes a national championship contender without any renewal or rebuilding processes. Dykes is currently in the beginning stages of instituting his air raid-type offense at a new program with a true freshman quarterback. His impact will be seen in much longer terms with a rough transition season ahead. Meanwhile, Helfrich is showing all Oregon fans that no change will occur due to the departure of Chip Kelly.

5) What will be the best Pac-12 game of the week? Why?

Victor Flores – Watch out for a potential upset by Washington State over No. 5 Stanford. First of all, the Cougars are playing at home, which is always ideal if you’re an underdog. Secondly, they’ve legitimately looked like a solid team this season. They’re 3-1, with the one loss coming in a game they nearly won over Auburn. Stanford is the better team, but expect Washington State to at least be close during the fourth quarter.

Christopher Keizur – Arizona at No. 16 Washington looks to be a great matchup. Both teams come into the game undefeated, and a win by either would go a long way in helping their chances to make a good bowl game at the end of the year.

Justin Wise – No. 16 Washington vs. Arizona features two undefeated teams in their Pac-12 opener. Washington has one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 629 yards of total offense a game, and Keith Price has looked as sharp as he ever has. On the other end, Arizona has an offensive threat of its own with a rushing attack averaging 322.3 yards a game. It is also difficult to gauge the output from each offense considering the weak non-conference schedules both played, but it is certain that this game will tell a lot about where these teams are at this point in the year.

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Emerald Roundtable: Games and players to get excited about this Saturday

Every week during football season, our sports staff will discuss different aspects of the upcoming week in college football. Today, digital sports editor Victor Flores and sports reporters Chris Keizur, Ryan Kostecka, Madison Guernsey and Hayden Kim discuss what to look forward to on Saturday.

1) Do you see any top-25 teams getting upset this weekend?

Victor Flores — Coming off a blowout loss to Oregon, people might not be expecting Tennessee to give No. 19 Florida much of a challenge. But Tennessee’s humongous offensive line could somewhat neutralize Florida’s elite defense, forcing the Gators’ offense (64th in the FBS in yards per game) to step up. Also watch out for Purdue against No. 24 Wisconsin.

Chris Keizur — No. 5 Stanford has a real chance to lose this weekend against No. 23 Arizona State. The Cardinal have not been tested at this point and the Sun Devils are a strong team. If Stanford wants to win they will have to be able to slow down ASU’s impressive aerial attack, which ranks 8th in the country in passing yards per game.

Ryan Kostecka — I don’t see any of the top teams in the country falling this week … expect maybe No. 22 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish could definitely lose to a tough, underrated Michigan State squad. With Notre Dame’s schedule, no game is a “gimme” and the Irish could be looking ahead to next week’s showdown against Oklahoma. The Irish will win, but it will be closer than people expect.

Madison Guernsey — Notre Dame will lose to Michigan State. The Spartans are 3-0 this season and are better than the Fighting Irish on both sides of the ball. This will be Michigan State’s first road game of 2013 but expect the Spartans, who have one of the nation’s best defenses, to stay undefeated in a close win.

Hayden Kim — Notre Dame is coming off a poor performance against a Purdue team that should have come away with a win. The Fighting Irish will now have to turn around and face a 3-0 Michigan State team that has one of the better defenses in the nation. While Michigan State will be the visitors, don’t be surprised when they pull the upset against No. 22 Notre Dame.

2) What is the best game of the weekend?

Victor Flores — ESPN’s College GameDay might be covering North Dakota State-Delaware State, but the best game is No. 23 Arizona State at No. 5 Stanford. However, Michigan State at No. 22 Notre Dame should be a close game between two teams with above-average defenses. Don’t sleep on the “Holy War” between Utah and BYU, either.

Chris Keizur — Unfortunately, this weekend only features one matchup between top 25 teams: No. 5 Stanford and No. 23 Arizona State. That will be the game you will most want to tune in for. Beyond that, keep your eye on Auburn at No. 6 LSU. Though LSU is the heavy favorite, this is a classic trap game for the home team as they may be looking ahead to their big game against Georgia next week.

Ryan Kostecka — The conventional pick is Arizona State-Stanford because it’s a big measuring stick for both teams. Arizona State winning introduces them as a possible Rose Bowl contender while a Stanford win makes their national title l hopes more realistic. I’m going with Fresno State-Boise State. It’s the best game of the year between teams not playing in an automatic qualifying (AQ) conference. A Fresno State win keeps their slim BCS hopes alive.

Madison Guernsey — The only top-25 matchup is Arizona State at Stanford, and while it will be a good game to see how good both teams really are, I think the Cardinal will win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee at No. 19 Florida presents the most entertaining contest. It’s the first SEC game for both teams, and each are coming off important losses. One of these teams has to make a statement, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Volunteers pull through.

Hayden Kim There is no question where the nation’s eyes will be this weekend. Coming off a dramatic win against Wisconsin, No. 23 ranked Arizona State is heading to Palo Alto as they get set to play No. 5 Stanford in what will be one of the biggest Pac-12 matchups of the year. Whatever the result, this will be a game that will be looked back at when it’s time to decide not only the Pac-12 champions, but potentially the national champions as well.

3) Who will have the best individual performance this weekend?

Victor Flores — It appears Ohio State’s Braxton Miller will play this Saturday against 1-2 Florida A&M (who plays in the FCS), which could result in some gaudy numbers by the Buckeyes quarterback. Some of the top Heisman candidates, like Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel and Florida State’s Jameis Winston, are also facing poor teams, so expect big days from them, as well. Also watch out for Marqise Lee (WR, USC), who seems due for a huge performance after a lackluster first three games.

Chris Keizur — Bishop Sankey, running back for the Washington Huskies, is set to have a big game this weekend. Against Idaho State, who I don’t think will have much of a chance, the Huskies are going to get up big early. This will lead to some yards on the ground as head coach Steve Sarkisian will look to run out the clock. I see Sankey ending with 200+ yards and three touchdowns.

Ryan Kostecka — Look for UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley to man-handle a pretty bad New Mexico State team. Hundley could easily pass for 300+ yards, four touchdowns and run for an additional 100+ yards and a touchdown. That’s a big-time performance heading into Pac-12 play. Sankey could also add to his nation-leading 184 rushing yards per game.

Madison Guernsey — Texas Tech freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield will go off against Texas State, who ranks 105th nationally in passing yards allowed per game but first against the run, meaning the Red Raiders will need to air it out. Mayfield has thrown for 996 yards already and should collect 350 more plus three touchdowns against the Bobcats.

Hayden Kim — Johnny Manziel is coming off a disappointing loss against top-ranked Alabama and will be looking to take that anger out on SMU this weekend. With virtually no pressure and no national audience waiting to gnaw at his every move, Manziel will have his usual evening of fame following a dominant performance against a mediocre SMU team.

4) What should Oregon be doing this week to get prepared for the rest of their season?

Victor Flores — The Ducks should be taking it easy. Coach Mark Helfrich said he isn’t going to have his players gameplan for California until next week, so the Oregon players should take advantage of the down time. With Pac-12 play starting next week, the Ducks won’t have an opportunity to rest like this for at least two months.

Chris Keizur — Oregon needs to set up a tribute to the gods of favorable road games. This season, almost all of their tough matchups are being played away from the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium as they take on No. 17 Washington and No. 5 Stanford. The Ducks will need to be able to maintain their focus and level of play in some hostile environments.

Ryan Kostecka — The Ducks are flying high right now and deserve some down time, but too much rest against a decent Cal team could lead to a shocking game result. Oregon needs to do a mixture of staying focused and relaxing. Several Oregon players are going home to see their families, so they should enjoy that, but they should also make sure to rest their bodies and keep their minds sharp.

Madison Guernsey — Keep doing what they’re doing and maintaining controlled egos. Their preparation has remained the same over the last few years and it’s paid off, so there’s no reason to change it now. They can afford to relax a little this weekend and then focus on Cal starting next week.

Hayden Kim — This is a week where one position needs to be figured out: place kickers. Sure, the tight ends and running backs will need some time to work themselves out, but with Pac-12 play right around the corner, the Ducks will need to solidify a more solid rotation between Alejandro Maldonado and Matt Wogan while they have some extra time. Rest will also be key as the veterans take their time to rejuvenate their bodies, while the younger players put in reps they normally wouldn’t see.

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