Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tomorrow’s matchup between Oregon and Washington and what to expect in the future for the Ducks.
1) Oregon State trailed by three with about five minutes left on Sunday, but Oregon pulled away for a comfortable victory. Did you see anything different in how the Ducks — who have struggled in close games — handled this tight late-game situation?
Kim — The one area where I saw a difference lay with a more selective lineup. Winning close games essentially comes down to winning/being fortunate in more possessions than the opposing team down the stretch and the Ducks happened to the benefactors against the Beavers. It helped that the Ducks have been in six close games this season.
Kostecka — There was a big difference with Oregon and it came down to two things in my opinion: rebounding and attacking the rim on offense. Over the final five minutes, the Ducks consistently played with a 6-foot-8 center yet only gave up one offensive rebound to the much taller Beavers while collecting seven defensive rebounds and two offensive ones. On offense, instead of settling for contested jumpers, Oregon kept attacking the rim and getting fouled, making 14-of-16 free throws to seal the win. The Ducks looked like the more composed and experienced team — something they’ve undoubtedly learned since Pac-12 play began.
Guernsey — They got stops and made their free throws. Plain and simple. Hitting 14 free throws in the final three minutes is huge when the game is close. The Beavers kept fouling into the final minute to give the best free throw-shooting team in the Pac-12 ample opportunities to capitalize and stretch its lead. Oregon tightened up on defense, which is huge considering all the struggles the Ducks have had defensively all season.
2) C.J. Wilcox is third in the Pac-12 in scoring (18.8 points per game) and torched the Ducks in Washington’s 80-76 victory on Jan. 23. What’s the key to stopping Wilcox and will the Ducks do it on Wednesday?
Kim — At this point, the Ducks shouldn’t necessarily be concerned with stopping C.J. Wilcox because he will get his numbers regardless of what the Ducks do. As for any good player, the only thing the Ducks can do is keep whoever is guarding Wilcox fresh and make him take contested jumpers. Plain and simple, one player cannot win a game.
Kostecka — I don’t know if there is a way to completely stop Wilcox because he’s such a crafty scorer by being able to catch and shoot or put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. The best thing to do is contain him and not let anyone else on Washington beat you. That being said, I would switch up different men to guard Wilcox. I’d send out the quick-handed Johnathan Loyd on him sometimes, then switch to Damyean Dotson and see if his length can bother him and then let Richard Amardi or Elgin Cook use their strength to beat him down. Sending a multitude of defenders at Wilcox throughout the game should frustrate him and never let him get into a proper rhythm.
Guernsey — Wilcox will get his points one way or another. The best thing Oregon can do to limit the damage is take away his outside shot, for one. Wilcox is the best three-point shooter on the Huskies at 39.9 percent and shoots over seven threes per game. But the Ducks can’t let him inside either. Wilcox is an excellent foul shooter at 86.6 percent on the year, so Oregon really needs to play lock down D up top and force him into mid-range jumpers.
3) “Must win” is often an overused phrase, but the Ducks are currently sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble. If the Ducks lose to Washington, are their tournament hopes destroyed?
Kim — I wouldn’t go as far as to say destroyed, but it would mean the Ducks would have to definitely win out the other five remaining games. Every remaining game is vital in regards to receiving an NCAA tournament bid and a loss to the Huskies would only further diminish a limited possibility for the Ducks, who are currently on the fence.
Kostecka — Yes, only in the sense that Oregon doesn’t win the Pac-12 tournament. Many bracketologists have Oregon out of the NCAA tournament right now but I think the Ducks control their own fate in the fact that if they win all their remaining regular season games they’re in. A loss in any of the remaining six games will have Oregon settling for a berth in the NIT rather than playing in the NCAA tournament.
Guernsey — Not destroyed, but certainly diminished. Oregon’s current resume isn’t strong enough and while a win over Washington won’t help it much, a loss would make it much worse. The good news for the Ducks is that they still have UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State on the schedule, so there’s a few opportunities to boost their resume as Selection Sunday approaches. Plus the automatic bid from the Pac-12 Tournament gives all 12 teams a chance.
4) Who wins on Wednesday and what will be the margin of victory?
Kim — The Ducks will carry over their success from Oregon State and pick up the win against Washington. Similar to the Oregon State game, the Ducks will win by a comfortable margin. The mood of the Oregon players was noticeably more positive following a much needed win and I believe this will be the biggest factor in their success.
Kostecka — Like I said last week, I’m sticking with Oregon to win out and make the NCAA tournament. There was something different in the Ducks during the Civil War, almost like they knew they were going to win and the thought of losing never crept into their mind, a confidence they’ve lacked since Pac-12 play began. With that mindset, Oregon will get a convincing 87-73 win and continue on with its winning ways.
Guernsey — Oregon wins but not by much. Both teams will be pumped on the rivalry and need to win, so it’ll be a hard-fought battle that should include lots of outside shooting. Joseph Young is a great closer and will hit clutch free throws to clinch a seven-point win for the Ducks.
Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd