Posted on 19 March 2014.
Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss the NCAA tournament. Oregon’s first game comes on Thursday at 12:10 p.m. PST against BYU.
1) Was Oregon’s seven seed higher (move favorable), lower or about what you expected?
Kim — It was a little higher than expected. But considering the Ducks finished the season on an eight-game winning streak, I wasn’t necessarily surprised to see Oregon receive a relatively high seed. In many ways, their top-10 ranking earlier in the season has come full circle.
Guernsey — A little higher. Late-season wins over UCLA and Arizona really helped, but I still thought the Ducks were locked into a 10 seed, partly due to the fact that they won the Pac-12 tournament last year and received a 12 seed. However, their better seed makes sense given their strong RPI (28th), strength of schedule (18th), non-conference RPI (6th) and BPI (20th), all of which are much better than last season.
Kostecka — It was higher than expected. I was pretty convinced the Ducks were an 8-9 seed, which wouldn’t be a problem except for the fact that they would probably be playing the No. 1 seed in the third round. Being awarded the No. 7 seed was huge because not only do they get a No. 10 seed, they get the opportunity to face a No. 2 seed (or 15 seed) in the third round. Wins over UCLA, ASU and Arizona (previously No. 1 in RPI) were apparently huge for the Ducks. Altogether, it’s a great seed and the one of the best possible outcomes for Oregon.
2) Are the Ducks peaking at the right time?
Kim — I do believe that the Ducks are hitting their stride at the right time. The postseason is what matters most and although the Ducks lost their game against UCLA, their season-ending streak has proven they can play with the best in the country. And with their projected NCAA tournament schedule, the Ducks have a good chance to be a sleeper this year.
Guernsey — Definitely, and they may have lost at the right time. Hot streaks have to end at some point (usually) so losing right before the Big Dance gave Oregon time to rest, make adjustments and get ready to go on another run. If they play the way they did over their seven-game winning streak, the Ducks will surprise a lot of people and bust plenty of brackets.
Kostecka — Of course they are. I think this season has gone extremely well for Oregon in the grand scheme of things. They started out knowing how to win and take care of inferior opponents but then they hit an extremely rough patch. Sure that rough patch almost cost them a shot at the NCAA tournament but since the Ducks were able to turn it around, they learned so much about themselves. They’re one of the most battle-tested teams in the tournament who have learned to close games out, which is huge for them. I’m not saying they’ll win the championship, but they remind me of a certain UConn team from a few years back who got hot at the end and was led by a dynamic offensive guard.
3) What are your thoughts on Oregon’s first opponent, BYU?
Kim — The last meeting between these two teams ended in a 100-96 OT finish in favor of Oregon. But without guard Kyle Collinsworth, BYU will not have enough playmakers to win the game. The Cougars still have a roster that is capable of scoring the ball, but the matchups will definitely favor the Ducks.
Guernsey — They’re a bit of a mystery. Similar to Oregon, BYU relies on scoring a ton and has an up-tempo offense. The Cougars are without a signature win but did beat Texas, Stanford and Gonzaga. Though they generally beat teams they were supposed to, they suffered ugly losses to Portland, Pacific and Pepperdine. They were terrific at home (15-1), bad on the road (5-7) and played solidly at neutral sites (4-3). BYU’s play mirrors Oregon’s and the Cougars actually outscored the Ducks this season, ranking third in the nation in points with 84.2 per game. The one clear advantage BYU has over Oregon is rebounding. The Cougars out-rebound the Ducks by nearly seven boards per game but just lost leading rebounder Collinsworth for the season.
Kostecka — A talented team who hit a stroke of bad luck. Losing Collinsworth is going to hurt the Cougars very badly and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. Not only did they lose their best overall player, in my opinion, they haven’t had any time to adjust to life without Collinsworth since he tore his ACL a week ago. It’s hard to have thoughts because it’s a vastly different team now. Who knows how things are going to turn out for BYU?
4) Who will win the Oregon-BYU game and what kind of game will it be (close, blowout, in between)?
Kim — I think the Ducks will win this game steadily. Without Collinsworth, the Ducks will have one less playmaker to worry about and can focus more on producing a consistent level of offense. The only worry for the Ducks will be whether or not they can produce enough offense to keep up with BYU.
Guernsey — Oregon wins by 10. The Ducks, as they’ve done lately, will barely trail at halftime and come out shooting in the second half. Both teams will get their points and the difference will be Oregon taking advantage of the loss of Collinsworth. The sophomore led the team in rebounds and assists and shot nearly 50 percent from the field and BYU hasn’t played without him all season. Mike Moser will have a big game on the boards and Joseph Young and Jason Calliste will knock down their jumpers, helping Oregon survive and advance.
Kostecka — Oregon will handle BYU by 13-17 points. It’ll be a pretty good game for Oregon since the Cougars struggle on defense and everyone knows how good Oregon is on offense. I really think BYU will struggle without Collinsworth and that’ll put to much extra pressure on Tyler Haws to produce more than his 23.4 points per game. The Ducks have proven that they can play defense, as evidenced by the last four weeks of the season, so look for that trend to continue. Also, watch to see how the Oregon reserves play. If they can log valuable minutes, it just makes the starters that much fresher for a possible showdown with Wisconsin.
5) If you think the Ducks will beat BYU, how much farther do you think they’ll go in the tournament?
Kim — If the Ducks can manage to beat BYU, the Ducks have as good a chance as any to advance to the Sweet Sixteen where they will likely meet No. 3 Creighton. There are some analysts that project the Ducks to make it to the Elite Eight and the only thing standing in their way is No. 2 Wisconsin. The problem however is the matchup in the post against the Badgers assuming they can get past BYU.
Guernsey — Assuming Wisconsin beats American, the Badgers end Oregon’s season. Wisconsin is an awful matchup for the Ducks. Frank Kaminsky is a load at seven feet and can consistently knock down outside jumpers. Bo Ryan’s offense is slow and will lull Oregon to sleep, completely disrupting its style of play. Wisconsin is a very good team that beat Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia, Saint Louis and Iowa twice during the regular season and has a real shot at making a deep run in the tournament.
Kostecka — This is a really tough question. There’s no doubt the Ducks have the offense that can reach the Elite Eight but what about their defense? Assuming the top seeds win out, Oregon will face No. 2 Wisconsin in the round of 32 and No. 3 Creighton in the Sweet 16. It’s a tough road ahead since both teams are stellar on offense and have a way of making their opponents play their styles. If the Ducks can get out and run on offense, really push the tempo, they can take down Wisconsin and Creighton. I think Oregon pulls the big upset and gets by Wisconsin but will end up losing a high-scoring affair to Creighton in the Sweet 16.
Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka