Last week football fans gathered to wait anxiously to see who their NFL teams would select from the college ranks.  Some teams managed to drastically improve their teams (49ers, Bills) and some teams traded away this draft for past investments (Redskins), but either way, there is always a lot of excitement after the draft about who made the best picks. Here are a couple of my favorites from the 2013 NFL draft.

Jarvis Jones (LB Georgia) #17 Overall Pittsburg Steelers—I have always been a huge fan of the Jones’s while he was at Georgia for the ferocity he played the game with.  Jones doesn’t appear to just want to make a tackle, he wants to embarrass anyone who thinks they can block him and punish the ball carrier when he finds them.  He has impressive speed off the edge and could become a great pass rusher is put in the right position schematically. He looks to me like a younger, faster, stronger version of James Harrison was when he won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2008. Jones will provide the fire and tenacity that the aging Pitt defense has been missing and will take control of games.

Robert Woods (WR USC) #41 Overall Buffalo Bills—In the pre-draft process I was always surprised how little noise there was about USC WR Roberts Woods. He was a total stud while in college, but got overshadowed by Marquise Lee and Matt Barkley. That combined with the disappointing season as a team Woods saw his stock drop dramatically.  Luckily for Buffalo they now have a potential pro-bowl receiver to pair with Stevie Johnson outside and also open up the box for C.J Spiller to go to work.  New quarterback E.J. Manuel will need all the weapons he can get if he is going to try and start from Day 1, which at this point is pretty likely.

Tyrann Mathieu (CB/S LSU) #69 Overall Arizona Cardinals—This pick was one of the most controversial in the draft by far.  A lot of scouts and draft experts didn’t have Mathieu going in the third round because of his size and discipline issues ON the field, much less before he got kicked off LSU for failing more drug tests than he could count. However I am a believer that production is production no matter how you slice it and Mathieu is an animal on the field. He also goes to Arizona where they have his old teammate Kevin Minter and former LSU corner Patrick Peterson who Mathieu worked with while in football exile.  If anyone can get Mathieu in line and maximize he potential it’s Peterson, who has already become a top corner in the NFL.

Barret Jones (C Alabama) #113 Overall St. Louis Rams- The former center for Saban’s Crimson Tide was one of my favorite players coming into the draft. He has outstanding versatility, playing guards, tackle, and center for the Crimson Tide.  Not only that, but he was a 4 time Academic All American and is a concert level pianist. Beyond that he doesn’t take crap from anyone.  In Alabama’s thumping of Notre Dame in the National Championship game Bama QB A.J. McCarron gave Jones and earful for not snapping the ball on time, Jones subsequently stood up and pushed McCarron aside like a rag doll. Its that kind of attitude that will make him a great center and leader for the Rams for years to come.

Everyone so often we see the public rise up in arms about how a certain athlete has wronged them, or an athlete will become frustrated with how he is being treated by the fans. We see it when teams are good and bad, perpetual bottom feeders, up and comers, or elite programs.  The fans want to be as close to the action and its athletes, but how demanding should the general population be?  With the constant storyline of concussions and physical impairment after their careers athletes are obviously giving a lot to be entertainers. The fans obviously want a hard hitting fast paced game, but at what point is an athlete even able to call it quits?  We saw Barry Sanders walk away from the NFL in his prime because he didn’t want to play anymore.  Obviously, Detroit Lions fans weren’t very pleased because Sanders was the key to their future as a franchise.  The fans are the ones that make the multi-million dollar contracts, but the sense of entitlement that comes with being a fan can sometimes blurs the line of what constitutes being an athlete. With the rise of social media an athlete is held accountable at all times, their Twitters, Facebook pages, Instagrams, everything is taken into account by fans. The fan wants to be as close to the action, but when does it start infringing on the players and what they deserve as people?

Bryce Harper made headlines recently about stating his displeasure about the sale of the jersey he wore on the Nationals Opening Day, his first in the majors. Now there are two sides to this obviously, his side and the side of the fan who paid over $13,000 for the rights to own said jersey.  Harper said that he wanted to keep the jersey for himself, as a memento for the hard work he had put in finally achieved the dream of any baseball player, make the opening day lineup. Harper is still young, he turned 20 last October, and just because he is a baseball prodigy doesn’t mean he isn’t entitled to hold on to something.  As a twenty year old myself I would be also be pretty heated if someone came into my room, took any one of my shirts, much less the one I spent the first nineteen years of my life trying to earn, and sold it to a random person on campus.  People idolize these athletes without thinking of what these things mean to them.  Fans decide that because they get paid millions of dollars (which Harper doesn’t) they aren’t entitled to have certain things like private social lives or keep their own memorabilia. Bryce Harper has become just the latest victim of living in the spotlight and having people want a piece of him, just like so many other athletes. I’m not saying that buying memorabilia is immoral, I have game worn jerseys hanging in my room, but athletes should have the discretion about what gets sold and what doesn’t.

There are only a few times I have glimpse into the lives of top tier athletes, but the first might have been the most memorable.  I was given the opportunity to attend an autograph session at the San Francisco 49ers training camp when I was twelve. I went armed with every card of every 49er I had in my arsenal hoping to somehow get Alex Smith, the 49ers first pick of the most recent draft, to sign some things for me. I, by some miracle, got his attention and he came over.  I handed him my Alex Smith rookie card and asked him if he could sign it.  Instead of doing what I thought was typical, just signing it, saying “hey kid.”, and going about his business he paused.  He looked at the card with amazement and said “I haven’t seen this one yet, mind if I read it?” and looked over what the card said about Smith’s pro prospects on the back. It dawned on my then that Smith was no different than me in when it came to that card. It was his picture on the front, but he was just excited it existed, same as me.  He wasn’t some drone that played football for my enjoyment anymore, he got excited about little things, he was curious about what the world had to say about him, just as any other twenty year old would.

Every fan wants to be part of the team. That’s why when talking about you constantly hear fans refer to the team as “we” instilling the idea that they are part of it instead of “they” even when they know that their connections to the team end where the actual team starts. The athletes on the field are entertainers, and almost all of them know and to some extent embrace that role. On the flip side however they are living their dreams to the fullest and that has to be respected.  I think its still fair that players live under a microscope, fans can be frustrated if their teams star player is photographed drinking the night before a big game, but its important to remember how old these guys are.  A twenty five year old has a life to live and can be pretty fragile mentally, and those things will only be exacerbated by having over a million people criticize and critique them over every little thing they do.  Pro athletes owe their fans their full effort in games and properly preparing for said games, as that is their job. Outside of that though, it’s pretty limited.  Players are just like us; they aren’t different in any way other way other than physically. It’s important to keep that in mind next time we go to a game and call a twenty one year old worthless for dropping a pass, missing a shot, or striking out. Athletes might be the product of the fans, but that doesn’t mean we as fans get to dictate their lives. Athletes owe us nothing when it comes down to it, and we have to realize that before athletes start being driven into early retirements because they can’t take the criticism any longer.

Note: Before I even begin this piece I would like to acknowledge the fact that this may be seen as a point of contention. I would like to say that I in no way mean any offense to anyone and apologize in advance if I do so.

In the United States today we are currently witnessing a new civil rights movement. Although it is not as well publicized as the Civil Rights Movement in the 60’s, the LGBT community is going through the process of dealing with what many feel are injustices presented toward them in modern society. With the increasing awareness and acceptance of homosexuality in today’s world there is still one area where there is yet to be an openly gay icon: the world of American sports. There have been openly gay athletes in some of the major fringe sports, but nothing in the NFL, NBA, NHL, or MLB.  Some of the inquiry is whether these sports simply don’t have many gay athletes and it is not really an issue, but that would be a pretty naïve view of the situation. From a numbers standpoint, the odds of having not a single gay athlete in any of these sports is astronomically low, and several players have come out as gay after their playing careers. So it begs the question, why are these athletes choosing not to be honest with the public about their sexuality? And what would America do if a player did come out as gay while still playing?

I think the most important thing to do here is first, is to look at what the public response to athletes is in non-major sports that are openly homosexual. Megan Rapinoe one of the major contributors to the US women’s soccer team recently has come out,  much to the support of the public. When asked why she chose to come out in an interview with Out Magazine she simply stated she had never been asked by the media before and would have been fine coming out at any time during her playing career. There has only been public support in the general media for Rapinoe, and any scrutiny of her sexuality has been kept behind closed doors if there is any at all.

In addition to Rapinoe,  UFC fighter Liz Carmouche told the public she was a lesbian during the normal pre-fight media interviews that accompanied her title fight with Ronda Rousey. It seemed to only be a small blip on the media radar.  Some of that probably had to do with the fact that it was a UFC fight, and those don’t garner a huge amount of media attention as it is, but also the fact that no one involved with the fight seemed to mind at all. Rousey said it was fine with her and she felt completely comfortable fighting Carmouche, as she should.

The larger surprise actually came for UFC president Dana White, who has been criticized at times of misogyny and homophobia. White simply came out and said  “Most of the guys that are in this sport are really good people, I honestly don’t see a situation where that would happen, but if it did, I’d fix it.” One can only assume Whites fixing of the situation would be to fire the offender (he has been known for fire people for a lot less).

So if we look at two pretty significant sports figures that have come out to positive feedback from the public why haven’t we seen a major athlete be open about their homosexuality? Unfortunately, the stigma of  gay males and gay females differ pretty radically, especially when it comes to sports. Rapinoe summed it up in her interview pretty well saying “I feel like sports in general are still homophobic, in the sense that not a lot of people are out. In female sports, if you’re gay, most likely your team knows it pretty quickly. It’s very open and widely supported. For males, it’s not that way at all. It’s sad.” Homosexual females tend to fly under that radar of public criticism, but there seems to be a universal understanding that a gay male wouldn’t be overlooked.

In the history of the NFL only five players have come out as gay David Kopay, Roy Simmons, Esera Tuaolo, Wade Davis and as of last week Kwame Harris.  It is also worth noting that none of these players felt comfortable coming out until after they left the sport.  There hasn’t been a single openly gay male actively playing a major sport in American history. According to CBS’s Mike Freeman there is an active player in the NFL that is considering opening up about his sexuality.  With this idea it’s hard not to wonder what the public reaction would be.  I can only assume the LGBT community would be avid in their support and at the most he would be a Jackie Robinson type historical player.

In his interview with Freeman the unnamed player said public ridicule was his biggest concern regarding whether or not to come out.  He appears to be under the impression the issues within the locker room would be dealt with quickly if they unfortunately came up, which seems surprisingly optimistic see as the 49ers Chris Culliver made some anti-gay remarks in Superbowl media week, and this week Chris Clemons said a gay player coming out would be “selfish” and “putting himself above the team”.  What really worries the unnamed player is what will happen when upwards of 60,000 people gather in a stadium and a mob mentality of drinking and heckling kicks in.  Obviously this person doesn’t want to have to face the verbal abuse and sexual abuse that might ensue from telling the world about his sexuality. Heckling is a pretty common thing in sports, but usually it is pretty vague and keeps to “you suck” or “you’re a bum”, but the idea that someone will be harassed for being gay is not out of the question by any means.  It is a sorry situation when someone feels that they have to hide who they are because of what other people might think, but that is the nature of sports and life in the public eye.

It would be nice to see the world become accepting of a homosexual athlete, but I don’t think we are quite ready. The media firestorm that ensued after Kwame Harris was outed to do a fight with his ex-boyfriend in the football community was large, and I can only image what would happen if an active player came out.  The fact that it still takes a supreme court to decide gays can marry, and in many states it’s still seen as outlandish doesn’t bode well for someone who has to travel the nation and play in front of thousands of people.  The tides are changing for gay athletes, and changing quickly, but I still don’t think that America would be ready to embrace a gay athlete, but some people didn’t think the country was ready for Jackie Robinson either, and he became a legend.  It’s sad that I even feel compelled to write this article, as I hope that sexual orientation would be a non-issue, but I still think there are too many people who can’t accept homosexuals especially in the public eye.  Hopefully someone gathers to courage to come out, and I wish him the best of luck.  I just hope they know how to deal with the abuse they will have to take.

Note: Before I even begin this piece I would like to acknowledge the fact that this may be seen as a point of contention. I would like to say that I in no way mean any offense to anyone and apologize in advance if I do so.

In the United States today we are currently witnessing a new civil rights movement. Although it is not as well publicized as the Civil Rights Movement in the 60’s, the LGBT community is going through the process of dealing with what many feel are injustices presented toward them in modern society. With the increasing awareness and acceptance of homosexuality in today’s world there is still one area where there is yet to be an openly gay icon: the world of American sports. There have been openly gay athletes in some of the major fringe sports, but nothing in the NFL, NBA, NHL, or MLB.  Some of the inquiry is whether these sports simply don’t have many gay athletes and it is not really an issue, but that would be a pretty naïve view of the situation. From a numbers standpoint, the odds of having not a single gay athlete in any of these sports is astronomically low, and several players have come out as gay after their playing careers. So it begs the question, why are these athletes choosing not to be honest with the public about their sexuality? And what would America do if a player did come out as gay while still playing?

I think the most important thing to do here is first, is to look at what the public response to athletes is in non-major sports that are openly homosexual. Megan Rapinoe one of the major contributors to the US women’s soccer team recently has come out,  much to the support of the public. When asked why she chose to come out in an interview with Out Magazine she simply stated she had never been asked by the media before and would have been fine coming out at any time during her playing career. There has only been public support in the general media for Rapinoe, and any scrutiny of her sexuality has been kept behind closed doors if there is any at all.

In addition to Rapinoe,  UFC fighter Liz Carmouche told the public she was a lesbian during the normal pre-fight media interviews that accompanied her title fight with Ronda Rousey. It seemed to only be a small blip on the media radar.  Some of that probably had to do with the fact that it was a UFC fight, and those don’t garner a huge amount of media attention as it is, but also the fact that no one involved with the fight seemed to mind at all. Rousey said it was fine with her and she felt completely comfortable fighting Carmouche, as she should.

The larger surprise actually came for UFC president Dana White, who has been criticized at times of misogyny and homophobia. White simply came out and said  “Most of the guys that are in this sport are really good people, I honestly don’t see a situation where that would happen, but if it did, I’d fix it.” One can only assume Whites fixing of the situation would be to fire the offender (he has been known for fire people for a lot less).

So if we look at two pretty significant sports figures that have come out to positive feedback from the public why haven’t we seen a major athlete be open about their homosexuality? Unfortunately, the stigma of  gay males and gay females differ pretty radically, especially when it comes to sports. Rapinoe summed it up in her interview pretty well saying “I feel like sports in general are still homophobic, in the sense that not a lot of people are out. In female sports, if you’re gay, most likely your team knows it pretty quickly. It’s very open and widely supported. For males, it’s not that way at all. It’s sad.” Homosexual females tend to fly under that radar of public criticism, but there seems to be a universal understanding that a gay male wouldn’t be overlooked.

In the history of the NFL only five players have come out as gay David Kopay, Roy Simmons, Esera Tuaolo, Wade Davis and as of last week Kwame Harris.  It is also worth noting that none of these players felt comfortable coming out until after they left the sport.  There hasn’t been a single openly gay male actively playing a major sport in American history. According to CBS’s Mike Freeman there is an active player in the NFL that is considering opening up about his sexuality.  With this idea it’s hard not to wonder what the public reaction would be.  I can only assume the LGBT community would be avid in their support and at the most he would be a Jackie Robinson type historical player.

In his interview with Freeman the unnamed player said public ridicule was his biggest concern regarding whether or not to come out.  He appears to be under the impression the issues within the locker room would be dealt with quickly if they unfortunately came up, which seems surprisingly optimistic see as the 49ers Chris Culliver made some anti-gay remarks in Superbowl media week, and this week Chris Clemons said a gay player coming out would be “selfish” and “putting himself above the team”.  What really worries the unnamed player is what will happen when upwards of 60,000 people gather in a stadium and a mob mentality of drinking and heckling kicks in.  Obviously this person doesn’t want to have to face the verbal abuse and sexual abuse that might ensue from telling the world about his sexuality. Heckling is a pretty common thing in sports, but usually it is pretty vague and keeps to “you suck” or “you’re a bum”, but the idea that someone will be harassed for being gay is not out of the question by any means.  It is a sorry situation when someone feels that they have to hide who they are because of what other people might think, but that is the nature of sports and life in the public eye.

It would be nice to see the world become accepting of a homosexual athlete, but I don’t think we are quite ready. The media firestorm that ensued after Kwame Harris was outed to do a fight with his ex-boyfriend in the football community was large, and I can only image what would happen if an active player came out.  The fact that it still takes a supreme court to decide gays can marry, and in many states it’s still seen as outlandish doesn’t bode well for someone who has to travel the nation and play in front of thousands of people.  The tides are changing for gay athletes, and changing quickly, but I still don’t think that America would be ready to embrace a gay athlete, but some people didn’t think the country was ready for Jackie Robinson either, and he became a legend.  It’s sad that I even feel compelled to write this article, as I hope that sexual orientation would be a non-issue, but I still think there are too many people who can’t accept homosexuals especially in the public eye.  Hopefully someone gathers to courage to come out, and I wish him the best of luck.  I just hope they know how to deal with the abuse they will have to take.

When NFL free agency kicks off it means two things: first, your favorite team might look a lot different next season, and second, a lot of people are going to get very rich very quickly.

An interesting phenomenon occurs every year in free agency regardless of which teams are good or bad. Some good teams are aggressive and look for those couple of players who they think will help them lock up a Superbowl.  Meanwhile, some good teams let their players walk away to help leave money to sign the core of their roster.  At the same time, some bad teams look to land a big name for a quick fix or to energize a fan base.  While other bad teams accept futility for another year and let some people test free agency to try and keep the core of their roster so they can build through the draft. All of these strategies obviously have their merits and their risks, and there have been plenty of examples of each, this year included.  Some teams like the 49ers and Patriots are letting some key components go, hoping that they can replace or improve the missing pieces.  But other teams like the Seahawks and Falcons are grasping for that one player who will give them an edge. Here is just a quick look at some of the biggest moves and what they mean to all the teams involved.

Wes Welker going from Brady to Manning: This isn’t the biggest signing of free agency, but it has by far my favorite story line behind it.  Welker has been a key cog of the New England offense for the last several years, and he is also one of Tom Brady’s best friends.  After taking a reported low ball offer, about five million a year, from the Pats, Welker decided to take his talents to Denver to work with Peyton Manning. This isn’t too surprising, as the Patriots have long history of letting players go who they feel aren’t worth the kind of money the open market dictates. What makes this situation awkward is that Tom Brady accepted about half the salary of other top tier quarterbacks to try and give the Pats the cap space to keep players. Reports are coming out that Brady is “enraged” by the Pats front office letting Welker go, especially to a top contender like the Broncos, who could very well be in a position to knock the Pats out of the playoffs this season. The only solace for Brady is they have replaced Welker with Danny Amendola who has a very similar skill set and talent level, but he is younger and often injured.

Seattle Seahawks’ aggressive off-season: Holy Moses, the NFC better watch out because the Seahawks mean business this year.  After losing in the divisional round of the playoffs last year and having what many believe to be the best team in the NFC, they have gone out and made some big splashes.  Being one of the teams in the league that is running the surprisingly rare 4-3 defensive front has enabled the Seahawks to add both Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett to solidify their front line. The front seven was the biggest concern heading into free agency for the Seahawks, and they have done all they can before the draft to shore up any issues.  Perhaps in bigger news though, the Vikings were willing to part with their offensive Swiss army knife Percy Harvin for three draft picks. By giving up a first and seventh round pick this year and a third next year, the Seahawks have accumulated one of the scarier sets of skill position players in the league.  Between Marshawn Lynch, Harvin, Sydney Rice, Golden Tate, and the emergence of Ronnie Turbin last year, the Hawks are posed to strike for their first Superbowl this year.

Reggie Bush attempting to balance the Lions offense: Last season, Matt Stafford was forced to attempt an NFL record 727 passes due to the ineffectiveness of the Lion’s running game. Their leading rusher had less that 800 yards and averaged a dismal 3.7 yards a carry. Bush is a solid feature back who can be spelled by the power of Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell.  The Lions struggled in the run game last year because speed back Jahvid Best’s return from a concussion hasn’t gone as anyone would have liked. Adding an explosive receiving threat out of the backfield, as well as someone who can make people miss in the open field and get to the corner in the run game, will open up the rest of the offense.  Bush hasn’t been the running back people thought he would be coming out of USC, but he proved in Miami he can be a feature back and hopefully he will continue to improve with the Lions. If they can get their defense together, I think the Lions can improve a lot with this simple and pretty cheap addition to the offense.

The Baltimore Ravens Salary Purge: Joe Flacco made a lot of headlines this offseason by signing his 6-year $120.6 million deal just a few weeks ago. Flacco said it symbolized the Ravens finally committing to him long term, but he might have taken less money if he knew the cost. So far this off season, the Ravens have traded postseason hero Anquan Boldin to the 49ers, let LBs Paul Kruger and Danelle Ellerbe walk away, and lost starting safeties Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard. The departure of these players, combined with the retirement of Ray Lewis, means the Ravens will replace at least six starters, including five on defense.  Ozzie Newsome has done a wonderful job as the Ravens GM for over a decade, so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt, but this kind of salary cap purge can cost a team three or four wins in a season.  It will be interesting to see if Flacco accidently crippled his team by signing such a massive contract as a reward for Baltimore’s first Superbowl in thirteen years.

In every economics course one of the first things you learn is about the idea of sunk costs. A sunk cost is basically something you have invested, usually time or money, that you have no chance of getting back. For example, a new technology is being developed and your company puts in a $20 million non-refundable deposit, with the option of paying another $40million if you end up using the product. Then a new company comes out with a technology that does the same thing; it will cost $5 million deposit with an extra $10million if put to use. You can’t get your $20 million back, but the second option still saves you tons of money.

These are the numbers facing the New York Jets regarding Mark Sanchez’s new contract, or sign a free agent like David Garrard.  “Bad contracts” whether it be paying a player whose skills have declined drastically due to age, over paying a free agent whose skills didn’t translate to a new scheme, or until recently high draft picks in the NFL. A bad contract doesn’t always mean a poor investment initially. Sometimes players are projected to do great things and just don’t develop properly, sometimes injuries stymie a player’s career and prevent them from making things work. One of the questions facing every team ever year is what to do with these players. There is a line between trying to make things work, developing a player and just admitting mistakes. Clearly teams hate admitting they messed up, but pretending there isn’t a problem doesn’t fix things. Unfortunately for them, sometimes ignoring the issue compounds the problem even more.

The inspiration for this article stems from the dilemma that the Philadelphia 76ers will face this off-season when dealing with center Andrew Bynum. The 76ers gave up perennial All-Star Andre Igoudala and reserve Nikola Vucevic to acquire Bynum, who will face free-agency at the end of this year.  The kicker in this whole scenario is that Bynum has played exactly 0 minutes this season and reports have come out that his knees are degenerative and arthritic meaning he may never play again on a consistent basis. Did I mention that he also is getting paid $17 million while he isn’t playing? He is/was certainly capable of being a player well worth his salary—25 year old 7 footers with Bynum’s offensive skill set don’t come along everyday, but the risk of his knees holding up is huge.

Which begs the question do the 76ers make an attempt to resign Bynum this offseason for presumably a maximum contract with the potential that he might not play or do they admit they made a bad trade and let him walk away? My personal view is that the 76ers let him walk.  He is going to search and probably get a maximum level deal from someone in the NBA in desperate need for a big man and have little to lose.  The 76ers however don’t need to worry about that risk.  The emergence of center Spencer Hawes combined with their young and exciting backcourt can make the 76ers a team that can win soon.  It would be much more worth while to use the money they would pay Bynum to secure the core of their roster and could still have money left over to bring in an above average player or two. The 76ers could also be seen as fairly fortunate though, because they have the ability to get rid of Bynum after this year if they want, they don’t have to sit and pay someone the don’t want for extended periods of time, something football and baseball teams are both dealing with right now.

Around the NFL we are seeing big name players get cut in order to clear cap space for free agents and rookie contracts. Just in the last few days Panthers CB Chris Gamble, Cardinals S Adrian Wilson, and Rams RB Steven Jackson have all been cut from their squads.  Now none of these players will have a hard time finding work with other teams, and they know it is part of the NFL business where players get one or two big contracts but very few starts actually see the end of their last contract, especially if their skills see a noticeable decline.  A lot of the debate stems from guaranteed contracts, but as the example noted in the introduction shows sometimes, cutting losses and moving forward is the best decision.  Mark Sanchez hasn’t shown that he can be a capable NFL starter, despite four years to do so, but his contract is being used a major reason why the Jets won’t move him.  It makes more economic and football sense if they just cut ties, eat the guarantee’s of his contract and move on with their team.

We have very similar issues in baseball as teams look to trim their Major League rosters in that some contracts are just bad.  Angels outfield Vernon Wells will make $21million this year, while superstar Mike Trout will bring in about $550,000. Trout is the star of the team and very clearly in its future. Wells is mediocre and the Angels are just waiting to get rid of him. Because there is no salary cap in baseball it is up to the owner to decide the payroll for his team.  With the Angels spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton they are clearly trying to win a championship.  Yet they insist on paying Wells to be an average player on their team. If they have to pay him regardless of what happens why not cut him, eat the deal, get a better player in his spot, and then finally make the money back up with ticket sales by making a post-season run. Obviously if winning were that simple Wells would be looking for work, and the Angels would be World Series Champs. There is a precedent for this though, last season the Boston Red Sox did one of the most massive salary dump in history and were pretty universally applauded for it. There has to be a reason though, the Red Sox were struggling and the move was seen to help chemistry and open up a rebuilding era.  The Miami Marlins tried the same thing and people are calling for owner Jeff Loria’s head. There are pros cons to each roster move, but there is no reason to hold on to bad deals to prevent admission of guilt.

However simple this may seem I must disclaim that I do not know the inner working of contract negotiations or behind the scenes details of locker rooms.  There must be something going on or else under grad econ students would make great decision makers in sports front offices. I just look around pro sports and can’t seem to understand why some many average players still have huge contracts.  Poor scouting can happen, sometimes players don’t turn out the way people expect, but that doesn’t mean they should continue to be rewarded for being a disappointment.

This past weekend I had the pleasure of traveling to Boston to attend the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference with some of the best and brightest in the world of sports media and statistics. While I was there I noticed some interesting trends that really surprised me.  First and foremost there was a noticeable lack of baseball oriented analytics panels and presentations. With the popularity of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball I anticipated baseball being a main attraction.  You hear so much about wins above replacement (WAR) and other such baseball metrics that are now standard vocabulary for even casual fans that I would presume that there would obviously be some new breakthrough in how to analyze baseball players. Then came the statement that silenced the room. Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz said, “Baseball analytics are exhausted, everyone has the same data and the same ranking systems.  The ideas are different, but there is no more room to grow.” Then I had to ask myself, “Why did baseball get exhausted before sports like football, hockey, and basketball and are still struggling to get the analytics they need in order to better analyze not only free agent players, but also draft picks and minor leaguers?” It quickly dawned on me that the more players on the field, court, or ice the harder it is to properly analyze the value of single player. The sport of baseball is unique in the sense that baseball is a unique sport where each player is performing by himself, while on offense against the rest of the opposing team.  It is solely the batter and the pitcher until the ball is in play.  Batters don’t have to worry about a backdoor cutter filling where they planned on driving, a player setting a poor screen enabling the defense to properly slide, or a pulling guard tripping over a downed lineman and causing a massive pile up. Each sport faces it’s unique challenges when trying to rank players based on how valuable they are to a team.

Part of the problem for a sport such as hockey as expressed in the runner up research paper “ Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of National Hockey League forwards and defensemen based upon all on-ice events” measured how hits, shots, blocked shot, and several other aspects effected the probability a goal being scored for either team and then ranked players on the ability to achieve positive statistics and avoid negative ones.  However, the authors admitted that THoR is not a perfect metric. For example a blocked shot was seen as a negative play, but obviously blocking an opposing players shot was a good idea as it prevent any chance of scoring.  This had to be seen as a negative play however because the odds of scoring for the team that had the shot blocked were still higher than the team that blocked said shot. Essentially, if a defender dodges a shot that scores, his THoR would remain the same. If a player simply got out of the way of the shot, and the shot happened to score his THoR would remain the same, but he failed to stop a goal from occurring.  This also ties in with what former Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said, “Defense will be impossible to quantify until you guys [analytics people] know our systems.” If the hockey coach instructed his defenders to get out of the way of shots to make better sight lines for his goalie, the defender did the right thing, but if the coach wants defenders to eat shots to cover up for an inept goalie, this player should be penalized in his ranking.  We also don’t know if the defender was late in getting to his mark because he was going after a loose puck or making up for another players mistake. There is too much going on to have a real single metric to measure the player’s value.

Another sport where some advanced metrics have had a lot of success is the offensive side of basketball.  The ability to determine who is worth playing on the offensive side of the court is a valuable asset to any coach or GM. Using what amount of hot and cold zones you can see how effective a player is when trying to score. However, basketball players don’t specialize in either offense or defense, as they do in football. Players must be capable of both scoring and defending at a high level.  In a panel on randomness and luck Houston Rocket’s GM Daryl Morey was pressed about why they gave up on Steve Novak, one of the best offensive shooters in the NBA. He responded, “We didn’t! We still…uh… his defense.” Looking at advanced metrics, Novak was one of the most efficient scorers in the league, and would have been a valuable asset to any team. Novak lacked in defense, and his inability to even play good team defense meant he and the Rockets had to part ways. Going back to the very outspoken Stan Van Gundy, about another player known for being a poor defender, J.J. Reddick, who played for Van Gundy in Orlando.  Van Gundy admitted he knew that Reddick was smaller and less athletic than many of the other shooting guards in the NBA.  Taller more athletic players could shoot over the top of Reddick without to much trouble, Van Gundy didn’t need the numbers to tell him. Much to the surprise of the audience Van Gundy came out swinging in his defense “Look, J.J. might not be the best one on one defender, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have a good defense with J.J there. He [Reddick] will never miss a rotation; he will be where you need him doing what you tell him to do. I’d rather have him doing what I say than some athlete who misses his rotations constantly and messes everything up giving teams open layups.”  This is where new school numbers are trumped by old school knowledge. There will never be a scenario where a team can be built by a computer, and models will never provide a coach with optimal lineups. A model can’t tell you whether or not two players personalities are going to mesh well. and once again, the more people you have to get along with the harder and harder it will be to create scenario’s where models will be able to replace conventional wisdom.

Then there is football, considered by many to be the ultimate team sport where one player’s success is almost completely based off of the play those around him.  Quarterbacks can’t be great unless they have time to throw, safeties can play the way the should unless they trust the front seven playing in front of them.  The best example that came to the forefront during the football analytics panel hosted by, several NFL personnel men and previously mentioned Aaron Shatz, was trying to evaluate the Seattle Seahawks wide receivers.  In conventional football wisdom a quarterback has to have the ball out of his hands in about three seconds, meaning depending on his release has to start his throwing motion in about two and half.  Russell Wilson of the Seahawks however holds the ball for an average of 3.64 seconds.  This extra time gives his receivers the ability to make and extra cut, or dig into their break harder and know that ball still has a chance at getting there. How can you evaluate a team where the receivers has 3.64 seconds to get open against a team like the Eagles where the offensive line is forcing the QB to get rid of the ball even quicker than three seconds?  At the 3.5-second mark with the two teams you have Wilson stepping up in the pocket ready to launch a bomb to Golden Tate where as Michael Vick/ Nick Foles is lying on his back with a 300 lb lineman on top of him.  The result on the play leads to the dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy for Seahawks fans, but broken ribs for Vick. On the other end Tate looks like a hero for hauling in a thirty-yard pass, but DeSean Jackson is left holding his head in frustration. Conventional and advanced statistics say that Tate is the better receiver here, but if you ask personnel directors who is the better receiver it will most likely be pretty heavy in favor of Jackson. This inability to isolate the reason for the outcome of a play, combined with the difficulty of coming up with some of sort of “if everyone played with the same ten players” benchmark football will continue to have difficulty ranking players.  People like Shatz have come up with ways to measure how a team is doing, and attempted to show how individual players are performing regardless of the rest of their team, but the difficulty in predicting how a player will do in the future is still an issue.  We saw this first hand when Economist/ Data Analyst Nate Silver predicted a Seahawks vs. Patriots Superbowl.  Both teams were tops in their conference in the advanced metrics both Football Outsiders and Silver were looking at.  However the numbers didn’t account for Pete Carroll giving Matt Bryant another chance on a game winning field goal, or Joe Flacco making one the best postseason runs in the history of the NFL. A sample size of only sixteen games is too few to be able to get an accurate reading, that combined with the difficulty of separating one player for the rest will continue to plague metrics in football.

With the world of baseball getting over-saturated with advanced metrics to the point where they have become a tool to become safer drafters, they still don’t really let poor teams compete with rich ones. Rich teams can just spend more money on the most effective players. Of course some teams still will pay for star power at the expense of batting average, but it has become about as scientific as it sports will allow.  This is due to baseballs unique style of play however, and until there is a system of complete and total isolation in the other sports they will maintain some of the “what were they thinking” magic that has been a part of sports since the days they began.

This week Lucas Oil Stadium hosts many top members of this year’s incoming NFL draft class for the NFL Combine.  For those of you who are unaware, the combine is a series of physical and mental tests for the incoming players ranging from 40 yard dashes to position specific drills to interviews to IQ tests. It takes place over the course of several days every February and gives NFL coaches the chance to examine the new talent.

All of these young men are trying to show that they are worth an NFL team investing hundreds of thousands of dollars, potentially even millions, on the idea that they will become serviceable members of an NFL franchise. But how many people really improve their draft stock at the draft, and how many do something to hurt their chances come April? It continues to amaze me that players show up and make fools of themselves instead of just staying home and sitting on their draft status.  With the talk of Jedeveon Clowney sitting out his entire junior season, sitting out the combine would be a whole lot safer. The ability to climb the draft ladder is limited, obviously there are notable exceptions, but the ability to drop is always prevalent, as  several players experience every season.

Some players have even started to limit their participation in the combine.  Most do at least some of the physical drills, but skill players tend to skip the bench press, and top quarterback prospects rarely actually throw a football.  The ability to choose what they do, playing to their strengths and hiding their weaknesses, is optimal, but not everyone has that luxury.  But it makes you wonder, especially with the rookie wage scale in place, why do top players even bother showing up? They don’t have much to gain and have everything to lose with a poor performance or potential injury.

Every season, the nation gets reports of players who have somehow shot themselves in the proverbial foot at the combine.  We aren’t even done this year, and we have plenty of fodder. Start with former Notre Dame Linebacker Manti Te’o, whose main goal of his trip to Indy was probably to stay out of the spotlight.  But he ran a terrifying slow 40, clocking in officially at 4.81. This is either coming from an athletic shortcoming (not enough raw speed) or a loss of focus leading up to the event (too worried about the scandal and failed to trainl), and neither of those are great messages to tell an NFL team. Combining that time, the catfishing scanal, and his poor performance in the national championship against Alabama, Te’o has gone from a top-5 franchise changer to a late first round or even second rounder. Te’o probably needed to show up at the combine to address coaches and media about the hoax involving his fake girlfriend that came to light several weeks ago, but his decision to run hurt his stock.

And  there are plenty of people who have done much worse. Vontaze Burfict, who had character issues while at Arizona State, failed his combine drug test. Burfict was seen as a first round talent who needed to be reigned in.  Good for him, he was able to have an impressive season for the Cincinnati Bengals, but going undrafted cost him what could have been hundreds of thousands of dollars. Players know exactly when the combine is and know they will be tested. Failing despite having that knowledge shows a total disregard for the system. However, if Burfict had chosen to stay home, then he never would have gotten tested.

Some players also just fail to prepare physically for the event. Tyrann Mathieu, also known as “The Honey Badger,” was only able to put up 4 reps of the standard 225 lb. bench press used to measure strength. He was able to make up for his shortcomings here with a good time in the 40 and solid work in position drills, but he started a step behind. All he had to do for the last six months was prepare for this event after he got kicked off the LSU football team for repeated substance abuse.  Teams expected that he would put up one of the best combines of the year because of his athleticism and time to prepare.

Worst of all are the interviews. Putting hundreds of microphones in front of 22 year olds who think they are invincible can lead to some pretty shocking results. Just this week, Sam Montgomery admitted to coaches that he took entire games off where he just didn’t try. The fact that a candidate for the draft would even think about saying such a thing is astounding.  With the number of players who don’t live up to their potential in the NFL because they are too used to always being the best athlete or don’t know how to work hard outside of practice, this has to be worrying. Then we have the infamous Wonderlic tests or simple IQ type tests for the athletes.  Out of a perfect score of 50, some players score in the single digits. Teams don’t really seem to care that much, as many good football players perform poorly on the Wonderlic and their draft position isn’t affected.  But knowing that your multi-million dollar investment can’t do basic arithmetic has to be a little unsettling.

Even with these examples of how players hurt themselves, there has to be a reason people go, and it has to be to help improve their stock. Some players become workout warriors and shoot up draft boards. Last year’s combine star was Dontari Poe, who turned his great workout into a top 15 selection. Other players, like Vernon Gholston, have gone from the third round to number seven.  Although the combine helped them, these players have the highest tendency to “bust” or perform to a lower level than expected.
The combine is supposed to show the raw skills and mental acumen of the incoming draft class, but it has turned into a televised minefield that players must navigate in order to not hurt themselves.  Players who suffer minor injuries and are rendered unable to partake may actually have the best lot. They are able to continue to hide any flaws the combine might expose.  They don’t have to get grilled in interviews where they might say something incriminating or have to diagram offenses or defenses they aren’t familiar with and be embarrassed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of players skipping out on Indy doesn’t rise dramatically.

Mixed Martial Arts has proven to be a pretty contentious subject, even amongst those passionate about combat sports. The casual observer tends to find it gruesome and overly violent; boxing purists see it as a bastardization of a once great sport.  Still illegal in many states, most notably New York, the issues facing MMA are not only social, but also political.

For a long time MMA was almost exclusively a men’s game, just as boxing hasn’t had a really recognizable figure in many years with the exception of Laila Ali, but her fame, despite her greatness, was as much to do with her name then her actual performance. The men’ side of MMA is pretty stagnant right now as an unprecedented number of injuries and contract disputes have prevented fans from seeing the fights they want.  Almost all the men’s weight classes have long-standing or dominant champions who pick and chose who they fight with great care.  Along with many fighters who don’t really have the resume, but are good a trash talking have skipped other more skilled fighter is line for title fights (Chael Sonnen fighting Jon Jones for the light heavyweight belt despite coming off a loss ). But even with the damper being put on the men’s game a new name is rising to the forefront of MMA.  Former Olympic Bronze medalist Ronda Rousey has taken women’s MMA by storm and may soon be the most popular fighter in the world.  Her brash outspoken personality combined with her incredible fight record make her the perfect candidate to be the unconventional face to the unconventional sport that is modern mixed martial arts.

Part of the reason that Rousey is so perfect for the spotlight, especially in a sport like MMA, is that she isn’t afraid to back down and will always speak her mind.  Although not quite as vulgar as UFC president Dana White she has certainly had her moments of saying something most other sports stars wouldn’t think of saying.  The most notorious of these outbursts was her candid opinion of reality television star and pop culture icon Kim Kardashian.  After being prompted with “Who do you hate?” on the red carpet at the release party for ESPN: The Body Issue Rousey proclaimed “You know what? I would beat the crap out of Kim Kardashian” (warning: harsh language). She then followed that up with quite a tirade about the importance of good role models in young woman’s lives. This kind of outspoken mentality shot her up the women’s rankings early in her MMA career where she earned a title bout with only her 5^th professional outing. She has consistently said however that her attacks on her opponents are more to hype the fights and bring in more publicity than to belittle her opponents.

It would be easy to dismiss Rousey as a hot headed up and comer who hasn’t faced anyone of importance yet, but her fights speak just as loudly as her mouth.  In her six professional fights she is 6-0 with 6 submission wins with only one fight lasting more than one minute in length.  Rousey comes into every single fight the same way. She has the same gameplan: jab, jab, hip throw, finishing armbar. Somehow even though her opponents know that her signature armbar is coming they are unable to stop it.  A two-time women’s MMA fighter of the year Rousey has not only brought the sport into the public eye, but is dominating it in a way that no one ever thought she would.  UFC president Dana White has been famously critical in his treatment of the female side of MMA, commenting that he never though it would mature to a point where it would be comparable to the mends game.  Then Rowdy Ronda came along and this is what he had to say:

“[She is like] Mike Tyson. Why did everybody like Mike Tyson? Because he had fantastic boxing skills and loved to go the distance? No, because when you watched a Mike Tyson fight, you knew somebody was about to be executed. When Tyson would walk into an arena you would get goose bumps. As a fight fan those are the kind of fighters you like. And trust me when I tell you, Ronda Rousey is that person.”

Rousey turned the idea of women’s MMA from a sort of side show where American Gladiotor Gina Carano was the big star, but quit in her prim to become a model, to a sport where she is being compared to legends in the men’s game. Coming from Rousey’s history of Judo, where she was the first American to ever medal in the Olympics (she won a bronze in Beijing) her throws have left opponents stunned.  In judo she was a constant contender at the world championships grabbing silver in 2007 soon after winning the gold in the Pan American games. Her track record speaks volumes to her dedication to the sport. In a recent interview with Yahoo! Sports she addressed her critics who said she fast tracked to the top because of her trash talking.  She replied, “People say I’ve only been around for two years. I say I’ve been around for 14 years, I didn’t get handed my judo medals” (warning: potential harsh language).

Rousey is a dominant figure who doesn’t hide when the camera is placed on her.  She comes out and takes what she feels she is entitled to and that is the UFC women’s bantamweight championship belt and her continued use of her First Amendment rights. She may be brash, and at times nasty, but a sport like MMA needs a brash and nasty face to show that MMA is a gritty nasty sport.  If she keeps this up Rousey will be the most recognizable face in combat sports, a scenario many people never even thought possible. Her fight against Liz Carmouche this Saturday could propel her into unprecedented popularity in mainstream culture.