Mike: Take a look at the teams in the past that have made deep runs in the tournament. Most of them have one thing in common: a star player. Oakland has that star in 6’11 forward Keith Benson. Not only does Benson put up 18 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, but he can stretch the floor well for the Golden Grizzlies, shooting 40.9 percent from behind the three- point arc. He’s got an NBA skill-set and can wreak havoc for opposing defenders. That’s not all Benson brings to the table. Aside from Oakland’s heavy offensive attack, Benson is the leading shot-blocker in the entire NCAA tournament at a whopping 3.6 per game. If he can shut down the paint and let Oakland get up and down the floor quickly, they’ll be one of the toughest outs around.
Quenton: While Benson is a phenomenal player, Utah State has its own star player in Tai Wesley. The WAC player of the year averaged 15 points and eight rebounds this year, leading the Aggies in both categories, while ranking 12th in the nation in shooting at a whopping 60 percent from the field. He also has exceptional feel for the paint and has great vision, so teams must beware of his passing skills from the block. The offense runs through Wesley, so the Aggies’ perimeter players will be rewarded with open looks due to the double teams he will continuously face in the paint. Wesley is also tough as nails. After breaking his nose for the second time in consecutive seasons, he has yet to miss a game for the Aggies, leading them all the way to a WAC tournament title. In a game known for physicality, Utah State will arguably have the most talented big manon the court when they take battle against Kansas State in the first round. If Wesley continues the way he’s played all year, Utah State could make a spectacular run.
Mike: I do like Tai Wesley, but Utah State doesn’t have nearly the supporting cast as Oakland. As perimeter players will not hesitate to let it fly from deep, and if the defense can’t close out fast enough, they will pay big–time. Guards Reggie Hamilton and freshman Travis Bader are as deadly as it gets, hitting a combined 172 3–pointers and bringing the team to 10th in the nation in the category. Oakland’s first round match–up against Texas may look rough at first sight, but when you look at how the Longhorns have played down the stretch, going a mere 8–4 in the final 12 games, things start to look a bit brighter. Teams began to play a zone against Texas, forcing them to shoot more jump–shots than they would like to, an area where they really struggle, and for a team that isn’t exactly known for its stifling defense, coach Kampe should have no problem following the scouting report. If they can pull off that first upset and gain some momentum, the rest of the field better look out.
Quenton: While Oakland does have an explosive offense who can shoot the three, the Aggies aren’t slouches themselves on the offensive end. Five of Utah State’s six top scorers shoot over 35 percent from three–point range, and as a team, they shoot 48 percent from the field, which is pretty solid. On the other hand, the Aggies play a completely different style of basketball, which prides itself on defending the basketball. They apply constant pressure, and the Wildcats are infamous for their sloppy turnovers. Not to mention, the Aggies’ defense only allows a 38 percent field goal percentage from their opponents. And while many complain about their strength of schedule – only ranked opponents were BYU and Georgetown – Utah State has an RPI of 15, seven spots higher than the Wildcats. Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen is paying attention, stating, “A lot of people might have this as an upset game, so we have to understand that we’re playing a good team.” They’d better, or they might be packing their bags earlier than expected.
Mike: I’ll give you credit, personally, I think Utah State will beat Kansas State The problem is that we’re talking about a Cinderella story here, not an upset. I’m looking further down the road. For a team to have potential to make a long run against top opponents, it will undoubtedly need to control the game and play at its own pace. We already know Oakland plays a “run and gun” style that is tough for any team to run with, but they also have the ability to dominate the paint with their big men, a trait which is a necessity in order to truly dominate games. The team ranks 13th nationally in team rebounding. Aside from the outstanding rebounding ability of Benson, Oakland has senior Will Hudson, who puts up 7.1 per game, and Drew Valentine, who grabs 5.6. If a team wants to play a fast–paced game and put up a lot of shots, it better be able to rebound the basketball at a very high level, and this team can. Throw in the fact that it is the 11th best shot–blocking team in the country, allowing them to grab extra possessions throughout the game. Good luck slowing these guys down.
Quenton: Utah State is not just a team that makes one shocking upset, and then they’re eliminated from the round of 32. The Aggies are more than capable of making a long run in the tournament, especially in the Southwest region. With a victory over Kansas State, the Aggies would face the winner of the matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Belmont Bruins. Both of these teams would be beatable in the second round, as Wisconsin has a horrible time on the road and Belmont would be the underdog against Utah State. Granted, if things play out as they should, they’d face No. 1 seeded Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16, which would be an upset for the ages. But its defense keeps the team in the game with anyone, and if it has the lead in the second half, Coach Morrill is going to do what he does best, which is grinding out the game. Similar to Oakland, the Aggies are also known for their rebounding, as they’ve outrebounded all but two of their opponents this year. The Aggies may not be flashy or as athletic as Oakland, but they execute the two most important things when it comes to winning a basketball game: rebounding and playing defense, which is why I give them a chance against any opponent in the tournament.
Mike: There’s one final important trait a team must have to make a run at a championship that is more important than all of the others: senior leadership. Upperclassmen make all the difference, and Oakland is full of them, with three seniors and a junior in the starting lineup. Cinderella teams have to want it more than everyone else but stay focused at the same time, and having the luxury of mature players on the floor will make everything run more smoothly. It isn’t going to be a walk in the park for them; there may very well be times late in games when they are down and even struggling. There will be times of crisis when they will have to turn to the leaders. You can’t find this trait on any box score or on any web site, but when you go into a locker room full of seniors who are ready to take their last shots in their college uniforms, for some, the last shots of their careers, you can see why this would be a tough match–up for anyone. You can bet the Oakland Golden Grizzlies won’t go down without a fight, and is poised to be the biggest Cinderella team of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Quenton: Utah State is equipped with the same leadership on its roster, suiting up six seniors this year. These players have accomplished a great deal during their four–year tenure at the university, including four consecutive WAC regular season titles and three seasons with an undefeated record at home. However, it’ll most certainly be a rebuilding year for the Aggies next season, as these players will be exiting the program, leaving a dent in the roster. Yet, a deep run in this year’s NCAA tournament would be icing on the cake for the seniors who’ve fought admirably for the program. Their record over these four years is 108–27, including three consecutive appearances to the tourney. Backed by solid perimeter play, a viable post presence and stifling defense, don’t be surprised if you see the Utah State Aggies making a surprising run through the NCAA tournament.