Last Tuesday, the Ducks were on the wrong side of the bubble and staring at an NIT bid. But after Oregon beat Colorado and upset Utah at Matthew Knight Arena, it found itself on numerous bracket projections as one of the last teams in.
CBS’s Jerry Palm and TeamRankings have Oregon as a No. 10 seed in the Southern bracket, but analysts like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and DRatings say the Ducks would have to participate in the First Four as a No. 12 seed to make the round of 64.
Fortunately for the Ducks, their season isn’t over. Oregon has a few opportunities to boost its RPI ranking and improve its potential seeding.
Oregon is now No. 45 in the RPI, making it the third highest ranked team in the Pac-12. The Ducks face California and Stanford next week, then end the season at Oregon State. Going 3-0 over that stretch would give Oregon a 9-2 record over teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, a record that could rival teams in the RPI top 20.
Unfortunately for Oregon, all three games are going to be far from favorable match ups.
(Data via KenPom)
Oregon’s visit to Berkley is the final game that advanced metrics have Oregon favored in. That of course, means nothing to fans who have followed Duck basketball over the past six years. Cal has beaten Oregon 12 consecutive times dating back to 2008, making Dana Altman 0-7 against the Golden Bears.
Stanford has been a major stitch in Oregon’s side for a few years as well. The Cardinal ended the Ducks’ nine-game winning streak in 2013 and edged Oregon in Eugene by two points in 2014.
Meanwhile, Oregon State has compiled a 15-1 record at Gill Coliseum.
So instead of worrying about improving its record, Oregon should be concerned about hurting its resume before the Pac-12 tournament in March.
(Data via KenPom)
Simulations reveal that Oregon has a 43 percent chance to go 1-2 over the final stretch and finish with a record over 21-10.
(Data via TeamRankings)
When accounting for the strength of the individual wins, TeamRankings gives Oregon significantly better odds to make the NCAA tournament if the team can reach 22 wins, which would require a 2-1 record to end the season.
One win to close out the season keeps Oregon in the conversation, but two or more can virtually guarantee Oregon an at-large bid, regardless of how it performs in the conference tournament.
Of course, don’t count Oregon out for that automatic qualifying bid. If Oregon finishes the regular season as the No. 3 team in the Pac-12, it will receive a first-round bye and line itself up for a rematch with the No. 2 seed Utah in the semi-final.
Beating Arizona might be a bit of a stretch, but stranger things have happened in conference tournaments, particularly with teams like Oregon State and Stanford on the Wildcats’ half of the bracket.
As of Tuesday, Oregon is in. But even with a win over an RPI top 25 team, the Ducks still have a bit of work to do before the season is over to punch its invitation to the Big Dance.
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