The National League Championship Series starts tonight with the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis. Tomorrow, the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox for the first game of ALCS. Today, digital sports editor Victor Flores and sports reporters Madison Guernsey and Chris Mosch preview the two series and predict which pair of teams will represent their leagues in the World Series.
1) What was the biggest surprise from the Divisional Series?
Victor Flores — Two teams (the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates) took 2-1 leads in their series only to lose the final two games. The A’s, in particular, looked like they were moving on, but their bullpen threw a banana peel right in their path. Oakland was ahead of Detroit 3-0 through five innings and 4-3 through seven, but the relievers gave up five runs in the 7th and 8th innings to lose the game. Game 5 felt like a Tigers win early on because Justin Verlander is a freak of nature. The Pirates never let a lead slip like the A’s, but they still had two games (the first at home) against the Cardinals to advance, but they couldn’t come through. Blowing 2-1 LDS leads isn’t uncommon, but it felt like at least one of those two teams would be showering themselves with champagne.
Madison Guernsey — No Cinderellas. It seems like an oxymoron for a round with no upsets to be surprising, but the field was so even this postseason that a team like the Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays seemed destined to make a deep postseason run.
Chris Mosch — For the Rays to have any chance against the Red Sox, they needed David Price to be the ace that he was for much of the second half. That was far from what actually happened, as Boston jumped over the southpaw early and often in Game 2 and tagged Price for seven runs in seven innings. Price never got the chance to avenge his poor showing, as the Red Sox made quick work of the Rays, winning the ALDS in four games. There’s a good chance that this was Price’s final game for the Rays, the organization he has spent his entire career with. Rumors have swirled that the Rays will shop Price during the offseason, given the small-market organization’s history of shopping their homegrown talent once they become too expensive.
2) All four favored LDS teams advanced to the next round. Is it good or bad for baseball when the favorites beat the underdogs?
Victor Flores — Good. Casual fans would probably struggle to name more than 10 players combined from the four losing LDS teams (the A’s, Rays, Pirates and Atlanta Braves), but they almost certainly know Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Yasiel Puig, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Beltran and many others on the final four squads. When the best players compete for the World Series, fans are more likely to tune in. Plus, baseball benefits when the best team (or close to it) prevails in the postseason. Seeing sub-90-win wild card teams get the World Series trophy exposes the flaws of the postseason format.
Madison Guernsey — Good and bad. The “favorites” advancing after facing series deficits is a testament to how good they really are. But from a fan’s perspective, the early exit of the underdogs provides fewer storylines and perhaps less excitement. In the end, the bottom line is that the best teams moved on and will likely provide the most entertaining baseball heading forward.
Chris Mosch — Baseball fans may be disappointed not to get a World Series featuring the Pirates and Athletics, but there’s a good chance that we get a Red Sox-Dodgers series, a matchup that would be an instant classic. While the Boston-Los Angeles rivalry has a rich history on the basketball court, these two organizations haven’t squared off for baseball’s top prize since 1916, when the Boston Red Sox defeated the Brooklyn Robins in five games.
3) Which player has impressed you the most so far?
Victor Flores — Cardinals rookie Michael Wacha pitched beautifully in limited time (64.2 innings pitched) during the regular season, but he might never have better performance than he did Game 4 of the NLDS. Wacha pitched 7.1 innings in that game, giving up just one hit (a solo home run to Pedro Alvarez) and two walks, while recording nine strikeouts. Down in the series 2-1 and playing Game 4 on the road, people might have expected the rookie to be nervous. Wacha slapped that narrative in the face, keeping the Cardinals alive for one more game. As we know now, he kept them alive for even longer.
Madison Guernsey — There are several players worthy of most impressive. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, Juan Uribe, Hanley Ramirez, but the most impressive player in my eyes has been Carl Crawford. After recovering from an injury and having a rather pedestrian regular season, Crawford has excelled this postseason, hitting three home runs and having an OPS of 1.303.
Chris Mosch — The demise of Justin Verlander appears to have been slightly exaggerated. The Detroit hurler had a poor regular season by “Verlander standards,” as his 3.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were his worst marks since 2008. The biggest concern about Verlander this season was the reduced velocity on his fastball. The right-hander’s heater averaged just a tick over 94 MPH this season, which was a full MPH down from last season and nearly two MPH off his average velocity during his 2011 Cy Young Award campaign. Verlander dominated during his two starts against Oakland, striking out 21 and scattering just six hits across 15 scoreless innings of work. It’s no coincidence that he dialed his fastball up to 95.39 MPH during those two starts. The six-time All-Star is scheduled to take the hill against Boston in Game 3 of the ALCS.
4) Who wins the NLCS? Why?
Victor Flores — The Dodgers are headed to the World Series for the first time since Kirk Gibson limped his way around the bases on one of the most iconic home runs in baseball history. With starting pitchers like Kershaw, Zach Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles doesn’t need a great bullpen or lineup to beat the Cardinals. Luckily for the Dodgers, their bullpen and lineup are well-above average. While St. Louis is close to LA in aspect of the game, they might not have an advantage in any of them. That’s how deep the Dodgers are. Playoff baseball is about as predictable Eugene weather, so being the better all-around team doesn’t always translate into World Series appearances. That said, LA will still find a way to break through in a bunch of tight games. Dodgers in six.
Madison Guernsey — This is a tough call. I originally picked the Cardinals to represent the National League in the Fall Classic, but the Dodgers don’t look like they can be beat right now. St. Louis has the most resilient club in baseball, but the boys in blue have a ridiculous roster that is continuing to fire on all cylinders. LA wins in a dramatic seven-game series.
Chris Mosch — The Dodgers have the advantage of finishing off the Braves on Monday and being able to set their rotation, while the Cardinals had to send their ace Adam Wainwright to the mound on Wednesday to finish off the Pirates. Zack Greinke versus Joe Kelly in Game 1 is a mismatch in the favor of the Dodgers and while Michael Wacha has been the hottest pitcher in baseball, he could easily be equalized by baseball’s best pitcher — Clayton Kershaw — in Game 2. The Cardinals are loaded with home-grown talent, but there’s a decent chance that they head to Los Angeles down 2-0 in the series. Give me the Dodgers in six, but if the Cardinals force a Game 7, they’ll likely have Wainwright going against either Hyun-Jin Ryu or Ricky Nolasco, which would favor the redbirds.
5) Who wins the ALCS? Why?
Victor Flores — The Tigers have the starting pitching advantage but the Red Sox are the better overall team. Again, that might not make a difference but this year feels a little different. Boston annihilated Tampa Bay in the previous round and look like they can score runs off of anyone. The Red Sox will continue their dominance, making Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Aníbal Sánchez and Doug Fister look like ordinary pitchers and winning this series easily. Sox in five.
Madison Guernsey — The Boston Red Sox will win the ALCS. They’ve been the best team with the best offense for most of the season, and they hardly faltered against the Rays. Their pitching staff is on par with Detroit’s and they have the lineup, and the beards, to finish off the Tigers in five games.
Chris Mosch — I originally picked the Tigers to reach the World Series, but after what I saw in the ALDS, I’m going to have to go with Boston. Despite coming up big with a two-run blast in Game 5, Miguel Cabrera is playing through a multitude of lower body injuries and has looked like a shell of his old self. The A’s were able to subdue Cabrera by painting the outside edge of the strike zone with plenty of fastballs, as the home run was Cabrera’s lone extra base hit of the series and just his third since the start of September. I expect Boston’s pitching staff to follow suit and take the series in seven.