Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tomorrow’s matchup between Oregon and Washington State, the potential fallout from Damyean Dotson’s citation and Oregon’s NCAA tournament projections.
1) If the Ducks decide to suspend Damyean Dotson, how much will that hurt them down the stretch?
Kim — Without knowing the extent of the suspension, it will be hard to gauge the short/long -effects of playing without Dotson. Having said that, any game without Dotson will be exactly what it sounds like. Dotson hasn’t been having the best year statistically, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t vital to the Ducks. If the suspension does indeed turn out to be for the remainder of the regular season, that may just be enough to keep the Ducks from finishing out what has been a valiant late-season effort towards receiving an NCAA tournament bid.
Guernsey — It’ll hurt. Dotson has started every game this season, is Oregon’s fourth-leading scorer and has really come on as of late, recording 12 or more points in two of his last three games. Dotson has been a quietly consistent contributor for the Ducks and was a huge part of Oregon’s hot streak to end last season, averaging 16 points per game in the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments. A suspension would mean reaching deeper into Oregon’s bench and likely inserting Jason Calliste or Ben Carter into the starting lineup. We won’t know for sure until the situation develops further, but losing Dotson down the stretch would definitely hurt Oregon’s NCAA tourney chances.
Kostecka — The immediate effects if Dotson is suspended will be felt in a massive way. As I wrote after Oregon’s win over Washington, Dotson has been Oregon’s best player during the winning streak and his ability on offense AND defense will limit the Ducks in both areas if he’s sidelined. The Ducks have a pretty deep team but with the struggles of Dominic Artis, that leaves a backcourt of just Joseph Young, Johnathon Loyd and Jason Calliste. Oregon can beat Washington State without Dotson but in order to beat UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona, the Ducks are going to need a full team. Otherwise, their season will be over with a loss.
2) The Ducks have won two games in a row. Are they hitting their stride?
Hayden Kim — It’s ironic to say this considering Dotson might be out of the lineup for the next few games, but the Ducks are hitting their stride and have looked as close as they have to when they went 13-0 in non-conference play. But their most noticeable spark has come from their positive attitude following their recent two-game winning streak. If the Ducks lose Dotson, that attitude just may be in jeopardy moving forward.
Guernsey — It’s tough to say. Their last two wins were important and they played better, but a win over Washington State won’t add much in terms of them hitting their stride. Their Los Angeles road trip and huge final home stand against the Arizona schools will say much more about what kind of team this is heading into the Pac-12 Tournament. Of course, losing Dotson won’t help, so if that happens it’ll be interesting to see how his teammates respond.
Kostecka — This is the best Oregon has looked since being ranked No. 10 in the country almost two months ago. While the Ducks are still a long ways away from that No. 10 ranking, they’re a team that’s extremely battle-tested and is learning how to finish games, something they’ve done the past two games. If Oregon had found a way to score 17 total points over a five-game span, they’d be in first place in the conference – that 17 points separates first place from 10th place. Oregon is hitting their stride right now and will continue to keep winning and make the tournament.
3) CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm projects Oregon as a 10-seed in the NCAA tournament. Is that projection too high, too low or just right?
Kim — I would err on the side of that projection being too high. Though the Ducks began conference play as a top 10 team in the Associated Press poll, they have since looked like an unranked team. Considering last year’s team entered the tournament as a 12-seed, it would be hard to see the Ducks outbid them in any fashion. Add that with the possible late-season loss of Dotson and, honestly, the Ducks will simply be thankful to be in the tournament, let alone as a 10-seed.
Guernsey — After a strong regular season and winning the Pac-12 tournament last year, Oregon was still just a 12-seed. Obviously the field will be different this year, but as of now, Oregon’s resume isn’t good enough to warrant a 10-seed. The Ducks’ RPI is 39 and they are 1-6 against teams in the top 50 RPI (the one win came against BYU). Their next best win is over Georgetown, which has the 62nd best RPI. With their current resume, Oregon would be lucky to be an 11- or 12-seed and have to play into the tournament. The good news for the Ducks is that they have three games remaining against strong RPI teams, all of whom are also poised to make the tournament per Palm’s projections (No. 2 Arizona, No. 12 UCLA and No. 31 Arizona State).
Kostecka — Too high. In my opinion, as of right now, Oregon is still not a tournament team. They are, however, a legit bubble team who has the best chance to play themselves into the tournament amongst all bubble teams. After this week, UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona should be ranked top-25 in the country and if Oregon beats all of them over last two weeks, the Ducks will be a for-sure in the tournament. Depending on how they play in the Pac-12 tournament, they’ll be an 11-14 seed.
4) Who wins on Sunday night, and how close will the final score be?
Kim — The Ducks will win their third game in a row. Though Washington State will have Davonte Lacy in the lineup this time around, the Ducks simply overmatch them in virtually every facet of the game and shouldn’t have too much problem sweeping the series matchup. The potential loss of Dotson will be the only question in regards to how the Ducks approach this game mentally.
Guernsey — Oregon wins by 12. The Cougars are statistically the worst team in the conference in several categories and live and die by the three-point shot. Lacy will be back and will help Washington State not get blown out like last time these teams played, but that won’t be enough to slow down Oregon’s offense, which has come back to form in the last week.
Kostecka — Ducks will win by 23. Washington State is a much different team with Lacy in the lineup but it’s not nearly good enough to take down Oregon at Matthew Knight Arena, even if the Ducks don’t have Dotson. Oregon will be quick to run the Cougars out of the arena while having their much-improved defense lock down Washington State from all areas. Oregon is riding a much-needed three-game wining streak heading into its Southern California road trip.
Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka