Every week during men’s basketball season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game(s). Today, sports reporters Hayden Kim, Madison Guernsey and Ryan Kostecka discuss tomorrow’s matchup between Oregon and Oregon State and what to expect in the future for the Ducks.
1) Will the Ducks make the NCAA tournament?
Madison Guernsey — It doesn’t look like it. Their resume isn’t nearly good enough. The 3-8 conference record reflects the true quality of this team more than their 12-0 non-conference record does. This team hasn’t been able to win close games lately and is now 2-5 in games decided by five points or less. That’s a huge difference between this team and the team that went to the sweet 16 last season, which finished 7-3 in games decided by five points or less. They’ll have to run the table over the next couple weeks and win at least a game or two in the Pac-12 Tournament to continue playing into late March.
Ryan Kostecka — If I was a betting man, I’d have to say no. The fact that they’re still on the bubble for many analysts’ brackets right now means that the people who decide which teams make the tournament are keen on the Ducks being one of the 68-teams. I think the Ducks need to turn things around and win out in their regular season, including wins over the top-three teams in the Pac-12, and steal two games in the Pac-12 tournament to make March Madness a reality. Arizona is clearly a different team without Brandon Ashley and with Oregon facing both the Wildcats and Arizona State in the last weekend of the regular season, a sweep of those teams will be the deciding factor.
Hayden Kim — As of now, I would say no. But with seven games remaining and five of them being at home, the Ducks—believe it or not—still have a chance to not only finish the season with 20 wins and an above .500 conference record, but also finish with 20 wins. Having said that, the Ducks still have a fighting chance. The Ducks are currently No. 42 in the most recent RPI rankings.
2) Which player needs to step up the most for Oregon to make it to the tournament?
Madison Guernsey — Dominic Artis. This guy hasn’t been noticeable at all this season. His numbers aren’t terribly down compared to last season, but he provided a noticeable spark to the team as a freshman. This year his shooting percentages are down, as are his assists, points and steals. Last season Oregon had Johnathan Loyd and Damyean Dotson come up huge in the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments, and it’ll take at least another player catching fire to give Oregon a chance at making a similar run.
Ryan Kostecka — Not player, but coach, as in head coach Dana Altman. Altman needs to find a lineup that’s going to give Oregon an idea of what they’re going to do each game. The Ducks can’t keep having different lineups this late in February, including no real sixth man off the bench. Who’s the sixth man; Elgin Cook, Jason Calliste, Johnathon Loyd? Also, Oregon is so successful in the press but when is it too much that it starts the hurt the team? The Ducks still have a lot of questions left unanswered and the majority of them can be answered by the man calling the plays.
Hayden Kim — Mike Moser has technically been the No. 2 guy on offense since the beginning of the year and it will be the case moving forward despite his slump in Pac-12 play. Moser is currently averaging 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, but it is very apparent that his production has dipped significantly amid the Ducks struggles. If the Ducks want to make a serious late season run, it will have to be in conjunction with the big man.
3) Who’s more important for Oregon to contain, Roberto Nelson or Eric Moreland?
Madison Guernsey — Moreland. Roberto Nelson can score, and score, and score some more but he isn’t the only guy capable of filling it up on Oregon State. Moreland, on the other hand, is the only player who can rebound. If Oregon can contain him inside and disallow him to get offensive rebounds, they’ll take away their biggest inside presence.
Ryan Kostecka — Moreland for sure. Nelson is going to get his points and that’s fine but if the Ducks are going to be successful, they’ll need to contain Moreland because he’s the biggest difference at the Ducks’ weakest spot. Moreland put up 15 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and three steals in OSU’s 80-72 victory just under a month ago and was the main catalyst from his low-post position, grabbing rebound after rebound and protecting the rim against Oregon’s penetrating guards.
Hayden Kim — The last time the Ducks met the Beavers, Eric Moreland racked up 15 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and three blocks. Moreland will be looking to do the same the second time around. With Moreland being the Beavers go to big man in the paint, it will be vital for the Ducks to contain Moreland as much as they can this Sunday.
4) Who will win on Sunday?
Madison Guernsey — Oregon. After dropping two heart-breakers last week and losing to Oregon State earlier this season, the Ducks will be fired up and play hungry. Their play has gotten better and the full court press is very effective when applied. The game on Sunday will say a lot about the state of this team and whether they have it in them to replicate last season’s success.
Ryan Kostecka — Oregon. The Ducks realize that this is do-or-die time and I think this team has a lot of fight in them, as evidenced in their last game when they came back from being down 20+ points to take the lead in the final minute against Arizona State. Playing in front of an expected crazy student section will be the key to rattling Oregon State and propelling the Ducks into Tournament contention.
Hayden Kim — Oregon will win by a comfortable margin. Though it was a disappointing performance over at the Gill Coliseum earlier this season, the Ducks are at home and fully understand this is a do-or-die type of game. Moreland and Roberto Nelson will likely get their numbers, but I expect the Ducks to string it together on both ends of the court, especially on the offense, to pull out the much needed victory.
Follow Hayden Kim on Twitter @HayDayKim
Follow Ryan Kostecka on Twitter @Ryan_Kostecka
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd