Every week during football season, our sports staff will discuss different topics surrounding an upcoming game. Today, sports reporters Chris Mosch, Madison Guernsey and Chris Keizur discuss today’s matchup between Oregon and Arizona.
1) What does Oregon have to do to come out of the desert with a win?
Chris Mosch – Oregon’s success on Saturday will be determined by how they handle the running game on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they’ll need to limit the damage Ka’Deem Carey — the reigning NCAA rushing champion — does on the ground. Offensively, Oregon needs to reestablish its running game coming off its two worst rushing performances of the season against Stanford and Utah. Byron Marshall got just 11 touches in each of those games, which is a trend that cannot continue.
Madison Guernsey – They need to stay consistent and get the running game back on track. We’ll see how Marcus Mariota’s knee feels, but his ability to run will play a large role in the final outcome of the game. As always, they have to win the turnover battle and find a way to try and contain Ka’Deem Carey. The Ducks run defense is allowing less than three and a half yards per carry this season, but Carey is a different animal. He and B.J. Denker will test Oregon’s defense early, so if the Ducks can jump out to an early lead Arizona will be forced to go to the air.
Chris Keizur – To win this game Oregon will have to be able to get back to running the ball, something they have struggled with of late. Last week against an admittedly strong Utah run defense, Oregon was only able to muster 145 yards. This was well off their average of 285.9 yards per game. Look for Byron Marshall to take on the brunt of the duties, with Marcus Mariota still dealing with his injury and De’Anthony Thomas playing more out of the slot.
2) What does Arizona have to do to upset the Ducks?
Chris Mosch – Quarterback B.J. Denker can’t be afraid to air it out downfield. It is well established that Denker is a dual-threat that can take off, but he needs to be able to spread the field so Oregon can’t simply stack the box against Carey. Denker hasn’t completed a pass of more than 27 yards in either of his last two games, which will need to change for Arizona to keep up with Oregon’s potent offense.
Madison Guernsey – Force turnovers, above all a Mariota interception or two. Oregon’s success has in part been a result of their quarterback’s careful ball handling, so the Wildcats will need to do all they can to disrupt Mariota and force him out of the pocket on a bum knee. It won’t hurt if Carey and Denker play up to their potential, either.
Chris Keizur – To beat Oregon you have to score, so Arizona will have to do everything in its power to find the endzone on Saturday. Luckily they have the top running back in the nation, Ka’Deem Carey, who has already rushed for 1353 yards and 12 touchdowns. They also need to win the turnover battle, giving themselves as many extra possessions as possible while keeping Oregon’s offense off the field.
3) How will Oregon’s defense fare against Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey?
Chris Mosch – Oregon was the last team to limit to Arizona to less than 100 yards on the ground, but I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s performance. Oregon’s run defense hasn’t matched up well against quality ground games this season, as Bishop Sankey ran wild for 167 yards on 28 carries, UCLA’s number two and three running backs combined for 157 yards on 34 carries and Tyler Gaffney was able to pound first down after first down up the middle against the Ducks. I expect Carey to run for about 150 yards against Oregon on Saturday.
Madison Guernsey – Oregon’s run defense is good. But so is Carey. The junior tailback hasn’t failed to eclipse 100 yards in any game this season and that won’t change Saturday. Expect Arizona to lean heavily on Carey until they have to throw downfield, giving him a generous workload early on. He’ll wear down Oregon’s defense for a total of 145 yards and a couple scores.
Chris Keizur – As I mentioned earlier, Carey is tough to handle. Oregon shouldn’t look to stop him, instead being content to simply contain him and limit big plays. They should pack in the box and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air. It will also be important for the outside defenders to keep contain and force him back inside towards help. Carey will be good, but the Ducks have already shown they can do a decent job slowing down powerful runners. Carey will end the game with 100 yards and a touchdown.
4) Most intriguing storyline to watch?
Chris Mosch – Is Marcus Mariota’s knee really close to 100 percent? Offensive coordinator Scott Frost indicated after last week’s game that may be the case, perhaps to the point that Oregon’s play-caller may no longer need the knee brace that he has worn since the second half of the UCLA game. The read-option is an element that has been missing from Oregon’s offense the last few games, so it will be interesting to see whether Mariota will return to being a running threat on Saturday.
Madison Guernsey – Marcus Mariota’s left knee against Arizona’s defense. He was reluctant to leave the pocket all day last weekend against Utah and totaled just rush attempt. He and coaches were optimistic about the injury this week but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be back to full form this weekend.
Chris Keizur – How could you not bring up Marcus Mariota for most interesting storyline. Against Utah he looked rough, obviously playing through his left knee injury. He was unable to generate any attack using his speed, instead content to sit in the back in the pocket for most of the game. Fans will watch to see if he looks healthier. Keep in mind Mariota still has an outside chance of winning the Heisman, and a big individual game tomorrow would go a long way in helping.
5) Final score?
Chris Mosch – This won’t be quite the thrashing last year’s 49-0 win was, but the Ducks will still beat Arizona comfortably. Oregon wins 49-24.
Madison Guernsey – Oregon looks like their old selves, scoring early and often in bunches. They don’t let Denker get comfortable and force Arizona to rely on the running game and drain the clock. The Ducks even kick a field goal and win 52-17.
Chris Keizur – The forecast is for rain so the Ducks should be right at home, getting back to their high-octane ways. Oregon will win 45-14.
Follow Chris Mosch on Twitter @chris_mosch
Follow Madison Guernsey on Twitter @guernseymd
Follow Chris Keizur on Twitter @chriskeizur