Most people endure high school and tolerate college in hopes of finally getting their dream job. Since December 2007, the economic recession has put a damper on the aspirations of many new graduates.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession ended in June 2009, closing the door on an 18-month economic downturn. But according to some economists, the economy is far from full recovery.
With a current unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, students entering the work force will still have plenty of competition even with the lack of continual economic decline.
“Baylor students are facing a difficult job market,” Dr. Stephen Gardner, chairman of the economics department, said. “Education will prepare them well to compete in the job market. Plus, by the time they’re done with grad school, the market will have more time to straighten out.”
Gardner said students who plan on going to graduate school will have more time to prepare to venture into the job market, while students who plan on working after graduation need to prepare now.
“If students plan to go straight into the job market, they have to give a lot more thought to their job search,” Gardner said. “When the economy’s not so strong, students need to be preparing along the way.”
Granbury senior Brandi Moore, an accounting major, is skeptical of the new economic period of expansion.
“I’m graduating soon, and I’m still a little weary of the economy and how it will affect my job search,” Moore said. “I don’t think the economy is as stimulated as they think. It’s still not that great of an economy.”
Moore said she plans to forgo graduate school and will start an internship at a Houston accounting firm in the spring.
“There’s a lot of cutbacks, and it’s affected my job search,” Moore said. “The accounting department does recruiting and sets up interviews to prepare. It definitely helped me get the internship.”
Dr. Steve Green, professor of economics, said economic recovery is not an immediate, but rather a steady expansion.
“Because the recession is declared over doesn’t mean the economy is back. It just quit shrinking,” Green said. “It’s more about the direction of where the economy is going than a measure of where it is.”
Green said when examining the economy, economists focus on three things: rate of production growth, inflation and unemployment. He said signs of a good economy are fast growth, a low unemployment rate and low inflation.
“The economy is still in a difficult situation and not back to where it was before,” Green said. “It has taken a long time for confidence to return to a normal level, but it’s encouraging to see that it’s turning around.”
Gardner said even though the economy is in a period of expansion, that doesn’t mean economic problems like unemployment will go away quickly.
“When the economy turns around you don’t start adding jobs quickly. Because companies have found ways to operate efficiently, they are slow to hire back,” Gardner said. “They take advantage of the efficiency and don’t want to lay off again if the economy declines again and another recession arises.”
Gardner said the unemployment rate won’t decline and may even increase after a recession.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t count people not searching for jobs,” Gardner said. “So when people hear the recession is over, they start looking [for jobs] again making the [unemployment] rate rise at the beginning of recovery.”
There’s a cycle of unemployment, Gardner said. After layoffs, employers become profitable again. If sales continue to grow, they hire more people to increase production.
“Companies must restructure and develop new products and need employees to help them do that,” Gardner said. “When times are good, they tend to overestimate and hire too many people, and when times are bad, they tend to fire too many people.”
Gardner said the recovery will be slow, especially because of the forces that caused it.
“The decline is so big it won’t quickly reverse itself,” Gardner said. “The economy is basically going through big structural change, and it will take time to strengthen it.”