On Thursday, Jagdish Sheth, author of Chindia Rising: How China and India Will Benefit Your Business and founder of The India, China, America Institute, discussed his research on the status of emerging nations.
About 100 people attended the event at U. Central Florida, including diplomat-in-residence Harriet Elam-Thomas and students from David Houghton’s American Foreign Policy class.
Sheth had a conversational tone as he discussed the impact of emerging nations in future world markets.
“While the 20th century was driven by ideologies,” he noted, “the 21st century will be driven by the competitive economies of emerging nations.”
The 20th century triad between the U.S, the European Union and Japan is shifting, with Japan and the EU being replaced by China and India, Sheth said.
The term “Chindia,” coined by Indian politician Jairam Ramesh, refers to the simultaneous rise and ultimate impact of both countries on the world economy. It was a very radical thought at the time it was coined.
Now, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are deemed to all be at similar stages in advancement, where they will have comparable economies to that of the seven industrialized nations and perhaps shift the future of global economic power in their favor.
According to Sheth, the forces driving this huge shift in power are the aging of affluent nations, the economic reforms in emerging markets, the technical collapse of communism and economic pragmatism. Sheth said these four nations will drive the 21st century markets.
Based on purchasing power parity, a theory of long-term equilibrium exchange rates based on relative price levels of two countries, China has the second largest economy.
India, with the fourth largest economy, is quickly rising to third place and will presumably surpass Japan after further developing its infrastructure and finalizing its economic policies.
Meanwhile, other Asian countries — such as South Korea and Japan — are aligning with each other and investing in Indian manufacturing.
Ultimately, the race for resources, markets and leadership can only be halted by the environment. “Strange bedfellows” of Chindian influence in Africa will become more common, and a mostly spiritual “Easternization” is beginning, as evidenced by Christian yoga.
The birth rates in Spain and Italy are well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1, keeping them out of the race for power.
The replacement fertility rate is a projection of the number of children a newborn girl would give birth to in her lifetime.
Spain has a birth rate (per thousand people per year) of 10.8. Italy’s is 9.2, and the rate is 13.5 in the U.S. The recent waves of immigration in the U.S. are relatively insignificant in affecting population and production.
Meanwhile, India is developing its citizenry to become more and more educated, according to Sheth.
Jamaal Weatherspoon, a senior international relations major, enjoyed the presentation, though he questioned how India would be able to revamp its infrastructure.
“Indian children have the highest death rate by starvation,” he said.
After the question-and-answer session ended, Weatherspoon was able to sdirect his question to Sheth and talk face-to-face for a few minutes.
“I would have liked a little more time for questions,” Weatherspoon said, “but all things considered, it was a good presentation.”