Posted on 26 January 2015.
Who doesn’t love being right? Last month I wrote an article predicting the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots would face off in Super Bowl XLIX, and here it is. After an exciting NFC Championship game, and a blowout in the AFC edition, the NFL’s two best teams are ready to play for the ultimate prize on Sunday.
Old vs. New
This matchup has no lack of great themes and comparisons, the most intriguing being “Old vs. New.” Many matchups to this game show the younger Seattle squad trying to become the next New England dynasty team.
On Seattle’s side, you have the young quarterback with Russell Wilson looking to lead the Seahawks to being the NFL’s next dynasty. He is also looking to tie the record for most Super Bowl wins through their first three seasons, a record held by the quarterback on the other team.
Tom Brady and the Patriots come in as the old guard of success in today’s NFL, looking to get that elusive fourth Super Bowl win. The fourth championship that would cement Brady as the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, while making the Patriots run of dominance arguably the most impressive and unprecedented feat in the salary cap era of the NFL. It would be poetic justice that Brady returns to the University of Phoenix stadium, the place where he lost the 2007 19-0 undefeated season, to come back seven years later to finally capture the fourth Super Bowl that would cement him and Bill Belichick’s legacy as the greatest QB-Coach combination of all time.
Coaching
The next great storyline is the head coaches. Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are near opposites of one another, yet both are Super Bowl winning head coaches who have coached the New England Patriots before.
Bill Belichick is the NFL’s ultimate man of mystery. His stern, unspoken style has led to keeping team matters quiet as he has silenced some of the NFL’s most outspoken players (see Chad Ochocinco). The “Genius” is hailed as a draft expert because of his drafting of great players like Julian Edelman and Tom Brady in the late rounds of the draft.
Then you have Pete Carroll, who is known as a player’s coach and one of the most outspoken coaches in the league who speaks of his players’ accomplishments with great fervor. Carroll is constantly seen on the sideline jumping up and down and showing a great amount of emotion while chewing his trademark gum.
You have a Bill Parcells disciple in Belichick as he spent a number of years working under “The Big Tuna,” and then you have the guy who replaced him as coach of the Patriots in Carroll. Belichick schemes every game differently depending on the matchup, while Carroll is the type of guy to just line his guys up and let them do what they do best. These two are near polar opposites on the coaching spectrum.
But, unfortunately, both have been accused as cheaters during their careers. Belichick being linked to “Spygate,” while more recently allegations about deflated footballs have gotten anti-Patriot pundits like Marshall Faulk and others back in the headlines.
Carrollalso has done his fair share of shady coaching moves, most notably the NCAA scandal at USC, while he has had numerous players suspended in the NFL for use of performance enhancing drugs. Regardless of their opposing coaching styles and baggage associated with them, both are phenomenal head coaches.
Cornerback Battle
I’d be remiss to forget about the cornerbacks. Hours and hours will be spent by the media discussing who is the best cornerback in the league in the race between Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis. Two players, both earning first team All-Pro honors at the position, are widely considered as two of the best defenders in the league.
Richard Sherman has proclaimed himself as the best cornerback in the league, a title previously earned by Darrelle Revis. Sherman’s outspoken personality and great play on the field has made him a household name. While many fans loathe him for coming off as cocky, no one can disregard his skill on the field.
Revis Island is finally making his first appearance in a Super Bowl. Revis has transformed the New England defense by shutting down receivers like Brandon Marshall, AJ Green and Calvin Johnson. I fully believe Sherman’s quick rise to fame in the wake of the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run last year lead Darrelle Revis to New England to seek similar fame in helping a team win a Super Bowl. Sherman’s Seahawks are all that stand in the way for Revis to achieve that feat.
A third key cornerback to this game who has donned both jerseys adds to the drama. Brandon Browner was an original member of the Legion of Boom, but was signed by the Patriots this past offseason once Seattle decided to part ways with him.
He most notably tweeted out after the Seahawks trip to the White House in disgust when he was snubbed by the president as a member of the Legion of Boom. Browner’s response? “I’ll see him again…”
Pass to score, run to win
As entertaining as these themes and comparisons are, it’s how these teams actually play on the field that will determine the game. The NFL is transitioning more and more towards a passing league, and headlines will be made about Tom Brady vs. Legion of Boom and Russell Wilson vs. Darrelle Revis and company, but make no doubts that this game will be determined on the ground.
Both teams boast running backs that can churn out yards and break tackles, as Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount are two of the hardest backs to bring down in the NFL. What these two teams also have is a weakness to stopping the run. Whichever team can run the ball more effectively and efficiently will most likely be the team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy as the clock strikes midnight on the 2014 NFL season.
In the Conference Championship games both teams’ running backs had huge days. Blount went for 148 yards on 30 rushes and three touchdowns, while Lynch had an impressive day himself as he went 157 yards on 25 rushes and one touchdown. While the offensive lines of both Seattle and New England have had their issues over the course of the year, they have played better lately. The health of rookie center Bryan Stork will be pivotal for New England as their line plays much better with him in the starting five.
This season has shown that successfully running the ball on either the Seahawks or the Patriots is key in beating them. In all four losses the Seahawks suffered this year, the opposing team rushed for over 100 yards. Losses to Kansas City and Miami exposed that New England can be weak to an effective run game.
While Seattle’s defense is a great group, they are weak to the run mainly due to an undersized defensive line. Linemen like Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are phenomenal pass rushers, but are not as effective when stopping the run.
A key player in stopping the Patriots’ run game will be strong safety Kam Chancellor. Chancellor is known for making bone-shattering hits on receivers, but is underrated as one of the best run-stopping safeties in the league with his downhill tackling style.
On New England’s side, they have done a better job lately stopping the run. But, in the Divisional round, Baltimore’s Justin Forsett was effective running the ball as he went for 129 yards on 24 carries, and in their season opening loss, Dolphins running back Knowshon Moreno gashed them for 134 yards on 24 carries.
The Patriots have progressively gotten better over the course of the year in slowing down the run, but it still is far from perfect. Young phenom linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower will have to have big games to contain Marshawn Lynch.
These two need to be able to quickly diagnose and attack the running lanes and be able to successfully use the blockers that are taken up by enormous defensive linemen Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch and Vince Wilfork. Between the three of them the Patriots boast a three man defensive line nearly weighing 1,000 pounds.
Like Seattle, New England’s strong safety will also be key in stopping the run. Pat Chung is on his second stint in New England, but has played more effectively this year thanks to a bolstered pass coverage secondary that allows him to drop down into the box and stop the run. He hits more like a linebacker than a defensive back, and his tackling ability is critical in bringing down Marshawn Lynch.
The Patriot defenders need to focus on smart tackling and hold Lynch to minimal gains each time he touches the ball, preventing him from racking up yards after contact.
When in doubt, air it out
But what happens if both teams successfully stop the other’s run game? Then the game falls right where the Patriots want it to. In terms of passing offenses, it’s not a question as to which team holds the advantage.
Tom Brady is not only the much better quarterback, but he has a much more experienced and talented receiving core to throw it to. Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola all have made contributions all season, and don’t forget about the best non-quarterback offensive weapon ie NFL in tight end Rob Gronkowski. If Seattle decides to focus on taking away New England’s run game, Brady and the Patriots will resort to the “dink and dunk” shotgun-based offense that was so successful against the Ravens.
Although the Legion of Boom is considered the best secondary in football, the big defensive backs will have trouble keeping up with the quick, lateral routes the Patriots will employ with Edelman and Amendola. And once they decide to play tight man coverage? Well that’s when Brady goes deep down the middle to Rob Gronkowski or hits Brandon LaFell down the sideline. Seattle wants to start blitzing Brady? Well, he’ll just dump it off to Shane Vereen for a quick five yard gain.
A player that could be an x-factor for the Patriots on offense is tight end Tim Wright. He has not been used much in games lately, but he normally draws favorable matchups as defenses are more focused on Gronkowski, Edelman and LaFell.
When the Patriots run their popular two tight end packages, they employ both Gronkowski and Wright, making it hard for the defense to predict a run or a pass. He has become a forgotten man in the Patriot offense, but Danny Amendola proved in the Divisional round that no Patriot receiver should be left unaccounted for.
This Patriots offense is the most complex and balanced one the Seahawks have faced all year, and they could be in for a big wakeup call if they think it’s as one-dimensional as the one they beat up on the Denver Broncos in last year’s Super Bowl.
Russell Wilson on the other hand is a very talented young quarterback. He is an extremely smart scrambling quarterback, as he knows when to either slide or get out of bounds. But what he lacks is the help in the receiving core to matchup against a secondary as talented as New England’s.
Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner both thrive in tight man coverage and should both feast on wide receivers like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Wilson showed in the NFC Championship Game that if he is kept in the pocket and forced to throw, he is extremely prone to making mistakes as the Green Bay defense came up with four interceptions.
To combat Wilson’s scrambling ability, it will be key for the Patriots to commit a defender as a QB spy. Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, or even a player like Tavon Wilson could be employed to stay home and account for Wilson and make sure he does not take off on them. If the Patriots play man coverage, it is even more important to have a QB spy for if Seattle sends their receivers deep to clear out room for Wilson to scramble.
Seattle’s run-first offense is not made to come from behind in games. Their lack of a passing offense to lean on has hurt them this year, as they are a weak 1-4 in games where their opponent scores over 22 points. If New England can get up early, it could get ugly very quickly for Seattle.
Who goes down in the history books?
This Super Bowl will be a great game from start to finish. The matchup features numerous great themes and matchups, but who will be the team hoisting the Lombardi at the end of the day?
I think the diversity and balance of the New England offense will allow them to adjust depending on what the Seahawks defense will give them. Either LeGarrette Blount will run well on the Seahawks, or Brady will resort to his shotgun-based “dink and dunk” offense to his group of shifty wide receivers. And if Seattle decides to let them be balanced? The Patriots offense will be able to employ play action passes and keep the defense honest with run plays.
I also don’t believe the Seahawks will have an efficient way to shut down All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski who does not forget his first Super Bowl. A high ankle sprain in the 2011 conference game lead him to a quiet twocatches for 26 yards in the Patriot’s Super Bowl XLVI loss to the New York Giants. I have to imagine he will come out and play one of his best games of the season on the ultimate stage. And Seahawk cornerback Jeremy Lane saying Gronk “Isn’t that good?” Yeah, I’m sure that won’t end up on the bulletin board for extra motivation.
The Seahawks are simply not as balanced on offense, and I think the Patriots defense will follow the blueprint Green Bay used to beat Seattle. New England will load the box to slow down Marshawn Lynch and make Russell Wilson throw from the pocket.
The talented New England secondary of Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and company will take away Seattle’s weak receiving core, prevent deep passes, and force Wilson to make mistakes. The key is to slowing down Lynch, which is no small feat as “Beast Mode” can break off a game-changing run anytime he touches the ball. But, if the Patriot defense is up for the task, they will be extremely successful in stopping the Seattle offense.
At the end of the day, I predict the Patriots to come away with a 24-17 win. This game will be an extremely tight contest, but New England finally brings home Lombardi number four. It’s been a great 2014 NFL season, here’s to a phenomenal finish in Super Bowl XLIX.